World-renowned historian and Harvard University professor Niall Ferguson has sparked discussions with his prediction that Russia will win the war against Ukraine next year. He harshly criticized the Biden administration claiming that its overall foreign policy has failed and that this could lead to the re-election of former President Donald Trump in next year’s U.S. elections.
In an interview with the Spanish daily El País on the 27th (local time), Professor Ferguson said, “The U.S. did not expect Ukraine to hold out and was surprised when Ukraine defended Kyiv. Only then did they supply weapons, but not enough to win or even to avoid defeat.” He pointed out that “Ukraine is now in a dangerous situation where Western support is waning and ammunition is running out.” Given the tardy and insufficient support from the West, he predicts that Russia will be victorious.
He strongly criticized the Biden administration’s diplomacy for failing not only in Ukraine but also in major conflict areas such as the Middle East and Taiwan. Professor Ferguson said, “If future historians assess the Biden administration’s foreign policy, they will say it was very poor in terms of forcefulness.” He added, “Whether the U.S. can prevent China from blockading Taiwan remains to be seen, but it wouldn’t be surprising if they fail here too.”
Amidst this overall diplomatic failure, he also predicted that the Biden administration would lose in the upcoming elections and former President Trump would succeed in his re-election. He reiterated his criticism of the Biden administration’s foreign policy failures stating, “The Biden administration’s foreign policy has failed, and this makes Trump look good.”
He warned that Trump’s re-election could bring another crisis to European security. He emphasized, “It’s a delusion for Europe which relies on the U.S. for security to think they can choose between two superpowers (U.S. and China).” He added, “If Americans elect Trump and he withdraws from NATO, Europe will learn what ‘strategic autonomy’ really means. If Ukraine loses and Europe shares a border with Russia, and if the U.S. is absent a huge amount of money will be needed. They will also need to have the ability to arm themselves.”
Separately, Professor Ferguson expressed pessimistic views on the future impact of artificial intelligence (AI). He warned, “AI will not only eliminate white-collar office jobs but will also have unintended consequences on human cognitive abilities. Large Language Models (LLMs) will destroy our thought processes. If we don’t block LLMs from children, they will start thinking through ChatGPT and if that happens, we humans will not have a future as a species.”
Meanwhile, Professor Ferguson is a world-renowned economic historian famous for first defining the symbiotic economic relationship between the U.S. and China with the term ‘Chimerica’ during the 2008 financial crisis. He is also known as a revisionist researcher on imperialism and colonialism.
By. Hyun Woo Lee
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