Claims have emerged that Kim Jong-un, the Chairman of North Korea, could potentially start a real war.
These claims were mentioned in an article contributed to 38 North, a North Korean specialist media outlet, by Robert Carlin, a researcher at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies, and Professor Siegfried Hecker on the 11th (local time).
They stated, “The situation on the Korean Peninsula is more dangerous than at any time since early June 1950,” and “We think Kim Jong-un has made a strategic decision to go to war as his grandfather did in 1950.”
Furthermore, they said that while it is uncertain when and how Kim Jong-un will pull the trigger, the current danger has surpassed the ‘provocation’ level that South Korea, the U.S., and Japan always warn about.
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Adding to this, they noted that the ‘war preparation’ messages appearing in North Korean state-run media since early last year are not the usual ‘bluffs’ that North Korea typically makes.
They analyzed that “Kim Jong-un, Chairman of North Korea, who was greatly disappointed by the breakdown of negotiations at the North-U.S. summit in Hanoi in February 2019, has completely given up on normalizing relations with the U.S., which has been the goal of the North Korean regime for three generations, and this is the main reason for his decision to go to war.”
They also said that North Korea has had the opportunity and timing to pursue a military solution to the Korean Peninsula issue as a friendly global environment has been created through strengthening cooperation with China and Russia.
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The scholars pointed out that “South Korea and the U.S. insist on the belief that Kim Jong-un will maintain the status quo while making minor provocations because of the ‘ironclad’ deterrence of the U.S.-South Korea alliance.”
They warned that while South Korea and the U.S. believe they can deter North Korea by frequently sending the message that ‘if North Korea attacks, the North Korean regime will be destroyed,’ such a belief could be fatal in the current situation.
They also predicted that North Korea could try to target the weakest part of the military power of South Korea, the U.S., and Japan, either psychologically or physically.
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They also said that if Kim Jong-un, the Chairman of North Korea, believes there is no other way to improve relations with the U.S., he will have no choice but to resort to military methods, such as using nuclear weapons.
On the 14th, North Korea fired a ballistic missile into the East Sea. It resumed provocations after 27 days. Our military is analyzing the specifications of the missile, such as its flight distance, altitude, and speed.
By, Min Jung Kim
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