North Korea Successfully Tests Solid-Fuel Hypersonic Missile (Part 2)

◇ “North Korea’s new hypersonic missile nearly reached a maximum altitude of 100 km.”

It is thanks to the help of the United States. Without U.S. intelligence, we wouldn’t have known that the North Korean missile flew as far as 1,000 km (approximately 621 miles). Some claim that Japan has been ‘humiliated’ this time as they ignored U.S. intelligence and relied only on their information.

When North Korea launched a hypersonic missile in January 2022, both South Korea and Japan announced it to have traveled 700 km (approximately 435 miles), while North Korea declared it to have traveled 1,000 km (approximately 621 miles). Probably, the latter half of its 300 km (approximately 186 miles) trajectory was missing at that time as the flight path of the North Korean missile was low and erratic.

According to reliable sources, the maximum altitude of the North Korean missile this time was close to 100 km (approximately 62 miles), and its maximum speed reached Mach 14. This is the highest altitude North Korean hypersonic missiles have ever reached, approaching the level of the hypersonic missiles of China and Russia. Currently, there are two different types of hypersonic missiles being developed worldwide.

A comparison of the trajectories of ballistic missiles and hypersonic missiles. Hypersonic missiles travel in a zigzag pattern at low altitudes, making interception very difficult if not impossible. /Chosun Ilbo DB

The first type is the hypersonic glide vehicle (glider), which ascends like a ballistic missile and then glides at speeds exceeding Mach 5 after separating from the booster at a certain altitude. The second one is hypersonic cruise missiles that fly like airplanes using a scramjet engine.

◇ The North Korean missile makes turns at irregular maneuver levels instead of a zigzag flight for evasion.

In particular, hypersonic glide vehicles make interception difficult because they continuously change their path in a zigzag pattern while flying at ultra-high speeds. These include China’s DF-17, which is currently in active deployment, and North Korea’s Hwasong-8. They are characterized by having a stingray-shaped warhead suitable for gliding.

This time, North Korea launched something less sophisticated than China’s DF-17. It seems that its cone-shaped warhead made full-zigzag gliding maneuvers difficult. Technically speaking, it is more similar to a maneuvering reentry vehicle (MARV), which makes “turning maneuvers” mostly to the left and right instead of making zigzag movements up, down, left, and right. It is known that the North Korean hypersonic missile made a successful 240 km (approximately 149-mile) turning maneuver in the final stage in January 2022.

Turning maneuvers are less complex than zigzag glide maneuvers, but it certainly make interception more difficult than regular ballistic missiles. It may be comparable to the difficulty of hitting a slider in baseball that curves to the left and right.

◇ It is not quite at the level of “100% impossible to intercept,” but it is threateningly evolving.

Hypersonic missiles are being hailed as “game-changing” weapons that cannot be intercepted since they may reach Seoul from Pyongyang within two minutes. When they become zigzag glide warhead-type missiles, the current South Korean and U.S. capabilities won’t be able to intercept them. However, the military authorities believe that it is not 100% impossible to intercept them as long as they are “turning flight” warheads. This is evident by the fact that Russia’s hypersonic missiles, called “Kinzhal,” were deployed in actual combat for the first time in the Ukraine war, and they were intercepted several times by Ukraine’s U.S.-made Patriot missiles.

To conclude, it is clear that North Korea’s hypersonic missiles are threateningly evolving, although they are still far from being “100% not interceptable.” However, we need to be prepared for the prospect that North Korea may hack China and Russia’s successful development of hypersonic glide warhead-type missiles to convert it to further development of their weapons.