North Korea’s Ongoing Threat: What’s Kim Really Up To? Separating Fact from Fiction – Part 3
Must Prepare Thoroughly for North Korea’s Local and Strategic Provocation Possibilities
At the joint seminar 2024 Outlook on Inter-Korean Relations and Strategic Reinforcement of K-Defense hosted by the Northeast Asia Diplomacy and Security Forum and the Yangji Association, composed of former National Intelligence Service employees, on the 6th, Nam Joo Hong, a counselor at the Freedom Federation, emphasized, “The current issue of provocations from North Korea is not merely a danger but reaches the level of threat,” stressing the importance of our stance and response.
However, there are many concerns regarding the possibility of high-intensity local provocations, such as The ROKS Cheonan sinking and The Bombardment of Yeonpyeong, as well as missile test launches such as ICBMs (Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles) and SLBMs (Submarine-Launched Ballistic Missiles), and the 7th nuclear test, known as strategic provocations. Especially it should be noted that high-intensity local provocations like the Cheonan sinking can have a much more significant impact on our citizens in terms of shock, as they can result in casualties compared to strategic provocations such as missile launches.
However, since high-intensity local provocations would lead to strong retaliation from our military, their likelihood is currently not high. Many experts seem to weigh on the higher possibility of medium to low-intensity local provocations such as shelling near the NLL (Northern Limit Line), gunfire at the DMZ (Demilitarized Zone), and drone infiltrations.
President Yoon Suk Yeol is giving a speech at the 57th Central Integrated Defense Meeting held at the Yeongbingwan of the Blue House on the 31st of January. /News1
At the Northeast Asia Diplomacy and Security Forum seminar on the 6th, Choi Ji Young, director of the Northeast Asia Diplomacy and Security Forum, said, “All of North Korea’s provocations toward the South are part of psychological manipulation aimed at influencing our people,” and emphasized, “In 2024, being the year of the super election, it is more important than ever for all citizens to accurately understand North Korea’s intentions and purposes and arm themselves with a strong sense of security awareness.”
‘A Barking Dog Seldom Bites’… Is Silence More Dangerous?
Having worked closely with the Ministry of National Defense for the past 30 years, I have closely observed numerous provocations by North Korea, including its six nuclear tests and missile provocations, as well as incidents such as the First and Secon Battle of Yeonpyeong, Cheonan sinking, The Bombardment of Yeonpyeong, and infiltration of submarine vessels. Based on the pattern of provocations over the years, it has often been the case that high-intensity local provocations occurred when North Korea remained quiet after making threats rather than when it actively threatened. The Cheonan sinking and The Bombardment of Yeonpyeong are representative cases. As Minister Shin Won Sik mentioned on a broadcast, “A barking dog seldom bites,” as the saying goes.
President Yoon Suk Yeol, at the 57th Central Integrated Defense Meeting on the 31st of January, said, “Since the beginning of the year, the North Korean regime has continued its provocations and labeled South Korea as a combatant and enemy while denying the concept of nationhood,” predicted that “There will be various provocations such as border provocations, drone infiltrations, fake news, cyber attacks, and rear disruptions aimed at interfering in our elections.”
Rather than focusing on North Korea’s verbal bombs, we should analyze their actual actions and capabilities objectively. As President Yoon mentioned, we should thoroughly prepare for unexpected escalation scenarios by not overreacting while remaining calm yet firm.
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