CIA’s Collapse of North Korea Theory
Potential for China to Absorb North Korea Increases
Massive Military Power Will Disappear
As North Korea continues its provocations, concerns are rising about the possible resurgence of war between North and South Korea.
Some suggest that internal issues within North Korean organizations are emerging as the North seeks to erase Kim Jong Il. This has reignited the collapse of the North Korean theory that once caused significant turmoil in South Korea.
The collapse of North Korea theory posits that North Korea could collapse due to a combination of factors such as internal contradictions or external shocks.
The collapse of North Korea theory first emerged in a CIA report titled Exploring the Implications of Alternative North Korean Endgames, issued on January 21, 1998.
According to the report, the collapse of North Korea would involve a sequence of events: resource depletion→distribution only to those necessary for regime maintenance→residents choose independent survival→suppression of independent survival→organized resistance by residents→military defections to neighboring countries→collapse of North Korean regime→unification of the Korean Peninsula.
Based on the stages of the North Korea collapse scenario, North Korea appears to have reached the fifth stage.
Previously, North Korean residents chose independent survival through black markets such as Jangmadang when the distribution system completely collapsed during the famine from 1994 to 2000. An example of the North Korean regime suppressing these survival strategies is the 2009 currency reform.
With the outbreak of COVID-19, the border was closed for quarantine reasons, advancing to the fourth stage of the theory. Recently, organized protests such as collective strikes by North Korean overseas workers have occurred.
Continuing anti-regime incidents, like the exposure of anti-regime political organizations within North Korea, suggest that the collapse of North Korea is nearing.
It appears that the residents of North Korea are still afraid of Kim Jong Un’s force of reign, as there have been no instances of collective resistance.
On the flip side, this implies that the speed toward regime collapse will increase the moment the residents’ resistance exceeds the control of the North Korean regime or when the regime’s control reaches its limit.
If doubts about the North Korean regime continue, the process of North Korean military defection to neighboring countries could easily proceed.
If a mass exodus of soldiers occurs, North Korea’s military power, once boasting a force of 1.2 million, the world’s fourth-largest, will be greatly shaken.
If defections continue from this military, North Korea’s massive military power will disappear. Naturally, this will lead to the seventh stage of the scenario.
China is suspected to be highly interested in the collapse of North Korea theory because, in case of North Korea’s collapse, China is likely to absorb North Korea.
Experts believe that the collapse of North Korea is a matter of time. The recent continuous provocations by North Korea towards South Korea can also be interpreted as a means to control the population by showcasing military power.
Meanwhile, North Korea is known to have launched several short-range ballistic missiles into the East Sea on the 22nd.
The South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff reported, “Our military immediately detected and tracked the launch of North Korean missiles,” adding, “We have closely shared related information with the U.S. and Japan and are currently analyzing the detailed specifications.”
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