US vs. China: Who Would Win if There’s a War Over Taiwan?

The Ronald Reagan aircraft carrier training near the Philippines. Photo=U.S. 7th Fleet Twitter capture

China, emphasizing ‘One China,’ has expressed discomfort over the U.S.’s support for Taiwan and has been conducting consecutive real-time military exercises in the Taiwan Strait by deploying a large number of military aircraft. In response, the U.S. is deploying aircraft carriers in places like the Philippines to pressure China. Concerns are growing that a sudden local war could break out as tensions between the U.S. and China over Taiwan escalate. Some experts are releasing scenarios anticipating the shape and outcome of a war by comparing the military power of the U.S. and China.

According to ‘A Comparison of U.S. and Chinese Military Power in the Asia-Pacific Region and its Implications: Focusing on the Taiwan Strait Crisis Scenario’ presented by Lee Seong-hoon, a senior research fellow at the Institute for National Security Strategy, the U.S. and China would focus on avoiding military conflict through crisis management in the Taiwan Strait in the event of a crisis, but the possibility of a sudden clash due to mistrust and misidentification cannot be ruled out. It is argued that the situation could escalate due to a misfire during a show of force or unexpected aircraft contact in a tense military situation between the two sides, as was the case in the third Taiwan crisis (1995~1996), which was triggered by a minor incident.

If a conflict in the Taiwan Strait occurs, China is expected to block U.S. access to Taiwan by deploying missile forces, air forces, submarines, and surface forces simultaneously. This is because China is geographically advantageous compared to the U.S. While U.S. military bases such as Guam are far away, the distance from the Chinese coast to Taiwan is only about 93 miles. Therefore, China’s military is expected to utilize its geographical advantage and deploy a large number of medium and small missiles, traps, and diesel submarines.

Chinese fighter jets are also likely to operate near Taiwan without aerial refueling support. It is expected that a total of over 1,100 fighter jets, including about 140 belonging to the Air Force and Navy in the eastern and southern war zones, will be deployed.

A view of the J-15 taking off from the ‘Shandong,’ China’s first aircraft carrier built with independent technology. Photo=CCTV capture

What about the air power that the U.S. can deploy in response?

The U.S. can deploy about 507 combat mission aircraft, excluding the U.S. Air Force in South Korea. These are composed of air force units under the Indo-Pacific Command and U.S. Navy and Marine Corps fighters. It is known that the total number of combat mission aircraft under the Indo-Pacific Air Force Command, including the U.S. Forces in Japan, is about 210. In addition, the deployable power of the U.S. Navy and Marine Corps, including the FA-18, is about 400, and considering political sensitivity, it is known that about 70% can be deployed. In this case, the number of fighters that the U.S. Navy and Marine Corps can deploy is about 288.

Therefore, the scale of aircraft that can be deployed is about 2.2 times less in the U.S. However, the U.S. military’s 5th generation fighter force, composed of F-22s and F-35s, and support forces such as ISR and electronic warfare, are expected to overwhelm China, which is numerically superior. China has several 5th generation fighters, the J-20, and some 4.5th generation fighters, the J-11/Su-30MKK, but most of its force is composed of 3rd generation fighters such as the J-7 and J-8, which are inferior to the U.S. in individual capabilities, according to military experts.

The U.S. Navy’s 7th Fleet guided missile destroyer Benford is operating in the South China Sea. Photo provided by the U.S. Navy

What about the power gap between the two countries at sea

The U.S. Navy’s Indo-Pacific Fleet has 49 ships, or 75% of its total power, including two aircraft carriers, stationed in the 3rd Fleet (San Diego). The 7th Fleet (Yokosuka, Japan) has 14 ships, including one aircraft carrier, stationed. On the other hand, the Chinese navy has 19 ships (including one aircraft carrier) in the North Sea Fleet, 27 ships in the East Sea Fleet, and 27 ships (including one aircraft carrier) in the South Sea Fleet.

The U.S. has 35 submarines in the 3rd Fleet and three in the 7th Fleet. In particular, strategic nuclear submarines (SSBNs) are stationed in the 3rd Fleet. Only tactical nuclear submarines (SSNs) are stationed in the 7th Fleet. The Chinese navy has one strategic nuclear submarine each in the North Sea Fleet and three in the South Sea Fleet.

The U.S. has an absolute advantage in aircraft carrier power. The Nimitz-class nuclear-powered aircraft carrier is far superior to China’s Shandong and Liaoning in terms of anti-ship and anti-air capabilities. China is at an infant stage. The third aircraft carrier, the Guangdong, is being manufactured and has not yet been deployed for operations.

The sea power is also mostly in China’s favor in terms of numbers. While the number of aircraft carriers and major surface ships can be said to be similar in terms of quantity, the U.S. is superior in terms of quality. Moreover, China’s predominance in conventional submarines means that its numerical superiority is meaningless, according to a general assessment.

Chinese President Xi Jinping, dressed in military uniform, inspects the Joint Operations Command Center of the Military Commission. Photo=Capture from Yangxin New Media, affiliated with China Central Television (CCTV)

What if China invades Taiwan’s mainland instead of the Taiwan Strait

If a war breaks out in Taiwan, China is expected to have the upper hand in missile power. China’s power is ahead with the ability of DF (Dongfeng)-21D, DF-26, etc., anti-ship missiles, and the development of submarines capable of launching submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs).

China has deployed short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs) such as DF-11 and 15 to the inland near the coast, medium-range ballistic missiles (MRBMs) such as DF-21A/C to the mid-inland area, and intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) such as DF-3 and 31 to the inland. In particular, missiles capable of targeting U.S. aircraft carriers, such as DF-21D and DF-26, are deployed in the mid-inland area, ensuring survivability and striking power.

Above all, DF-21D and DF-26 missiles, the carrier killers, are the core of the A2/AD (anti-access/area denial) strategy. These are evaluated as power to block the approach of U.S. aircraft carrier fleets and threaten U.S. military bases stationed in Northeast Asia. The DF-21D has a range of 932~1243 miles and is known to have the capability of a ‘maneuverable re-entry vehicle’ (MaRV), in which multiple warheads mounted on a missile avoid interception with their propulsion systems.

A Chinese J-16 fighter jet that violated Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ). Photo provided by Taiwan’s Ministry of Defense

The U.S. has also produced simulation results on China’s Taiwan invasion scenario

The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a prominent U.S. think tank, released a report earlier this year titled ‘The First Battle of the Next War,’ a simulation result assuming a Chinese invasion of Taiwan in 2026. According to the report, the number of U.S. soldiers who would lose their lives in a battle starting with China’s invasion of Taiwan was estimated to be around 3,200 in just three weeks. This is about half the size of the U.S. soldiers sacrificed in 20 years of fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Japan’s damage is also expected, according to the analysis. The U.S. military stationed in Japan is expected to be attacked by the Chinese military. In this process, it is predicted that more than 100 fighter jets and 26 warships will be lost. However, the report ultimately predicted China’s defeat. The report stated, “The Chinese navy will be annihilated and tens of thousands of soldiers will become prisoners of war,” and “It appears that more than 10,000 Chinese soldiers will be killed and 155 fighter jets and 138 major vessels will be lost.”

Of course, Taiwan’s damage is also expected to be significant in the event of a Chinese invasion. The report predicted, “The Taiwan military will be severely damaged and will have to protect areas where power and basic public services have been cut off,” and “There will be at least 3,500 casualties in the Taiwan military, and 26 destroyers will sink.”

Therefore, although China’s invasion of Taiwan would end in China’s defeat, the damage to the U.S. and Taiwan is also expected to be greater than expected.

China Achieves ‘Strong Military Dream’ Target – Upgrading Air Power

Based on these results, how will the United States and China strengthen their military power?

It has been reported that the United States plans to secure additional Ford-class aircraft carriers or develop the Columbia-class SSBN (Submarine Ballistic Missile Nuclear-powered Submarine) to replace the Ohio-class SSBN. Furthermore, there are prospects of developing the next-generation bomber B-21 and securing over 2,000 F-35 stealth aircraft by the mid-2030s. In terms of utilizing advanced technology for weaponry, developments are expected in unmanned surface vessels, unmanned submarines, unmanned combat aircraft, hypersonic weapons, electromagnetic railguns, and high-energy laser weapons.

China, on the other hand, is expected to boost its air power to achieve the “Strong Military Dream” by 2049. To accomplish this, China is set to develop the stealth bomber H-20 and expedite the deployment and additional production of the 5th generation fighter J-20. The development of the next-generation stealth aircraft, J-31, is also underway with the goal of deployment in the mid-2020s.

By. Hyun Ho Lee