China’s Space Domination Plan by 2045 – Are They Beating Elon Musk?

China’s aim to become a space superpower by 2045
Accelerated commercialization of rocket launches

China, aiming to become the ultimate space superpower by 2045, is accelerating the commercialization of rocket launches. State-owned enterprises and private companies outperform SpaceX, led by Elon Musk, supporting China’s space ambitions.

China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation (CASC) successfully launched the meteorological satellite Feng Yun 1 4th series aboard the carrier rocket Kuaizhou 1A (KZ-1A) from the Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center in Gansu Province on the 5th, marking China’s first successful rocket launch of the year. To provide commercial weather data and build a ‘satellite constellation,’ the team launched Fengyun 1. China plans to complete the satellite constellation in sun-synchronous orbit by 2024.

ExPace: A Key Player in Commercial Rocketry

This launch was the 25th mission of Kuaizhou 1A. ExPace, China’s first commercial rocket specialist company, fully funded by CASC in 2016, developed the Kuaizhou series carrier rockets. It embodies China’s determination to achieve commercial success in the rocket industry.  

Leaving behind Long March, China’s only carrier rocket since 1970, ExPace unveiled Kuaizhou and Tianlong, a solid fuel-propelled spacecraft, in 2019. Kuaizhou is responsible for launching satellites into Low Earth Orbit (LEO), which has high commercial demand.

Cost-Effectiveness and Competition with SpaceX

The KZ-1A, currently China’s most cost-effective carrier rocket, costs about $10,000 per kilogram. This is 3.5 times the cost of SpaceX’s Falcon 9 ($2,700 per kilogram). Therefore, like SpaceX leading the global space industry through cost reduction, China also focuses on developing carrier rockets to lower launch costs. 

Private companies are also growing rapidly, supporting the commercialization of China’s space industry. In July last year, LandSpace, a private space company in China, became the first in the world to launch a rocket successfully using liquid methane as fuel. Last month, iSpace successfully test-launched its reusable rocket. Experts are highlighting methane fuel as the next-generation fuel due to its low cost, high performance, and reusability, which leads to cost savings.

Early last year, other national space companies, including SpaceX, attempted to launch liquid methane rockets into orbit but failed. Chinese private companies have outperformed industry leader SpaceX. As of the end of 2022, 433 private space companies are registered in China. China launched 25 rockets in the first half of last year, six of which were through private companies.

Global Launch Statistics

Meanwhile, according to Taiwan’s IT specialist media, DigiTimes, 222 rockets were launched worldwide last year. The U.S. accounted for about half with 108 launches, and China came in second with 62. Falcon 9 had the most launches, with 96, accounting for 44.4%, followed by Kuaizhou 1A with 6 launches (2.8%) and the Long March series with 42 launches (19%).   

Meanwhile, U.S. space company Astrobotic announced on the 8th (local time) that its self-developed lunar explorer Peregrine 1, launched that day, could fail to land on the moon due to a propulsion system failure. This raises the possibility of overall disruption to the Artemis Program, the U.S.’s moon landing program.

By. Ji Won Lee