China Faces Decline of 2.08 Million Population From Last Year

China’s population dropped by 208,000 last year. As China’s population enters a long-term decline due to a sharp drop in birth rates, there are analyses that the driving force of economic growth will weaken due to a decrease in the working-age population and an increase in the aging population.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics, on the 17th, the total population of China was recorded as 1,496.7 million at the end of last year. The number of births in China last year was 9.02 million and the number of deaths was 11.1 million. This is a decrease of 2.08 million compared to the end of 2022. The drop was larger than in 2022 (a decrease of 850,000). The population of China, which recorded the first decrease in 61 years in 2022, has decreased for two consecutive years.

The number of newborns fell below 10 million for the second year in a row after 2022. The male population was 720.32 million, and the female population was 689.35 million. By age, the working-age population of 16-59 years old accounted for 61.3% of the total, with 864.81 million people. Those over 60 years old were 296.97 million, accounting for 21.1%, and those over 65 years old were 216.76 million, accounting for 15.4%.

The proportion of the working-age population decreased by 0.7 percentage points from 2022 (62.0%). The proportion of those over 60 increased by 1.3 percentage points from 19.8% in 2022. As the total population decreased, the working-age population decreased, but the proportion of the elderly increased.

China has already entered a trend of population decline and an increase in the elderly. According to the economic media Jeil Economy, the State Council Development Research Center predicted in the ‘China Development Report 2023’ report that China’s fertility rate is likely to remain at a low level. The main reasons were ▲an increase in marriage age ▲decrease in willingness to give birth ▲decrease in women of childbearing age (15-49 years old) ▲increase in infertility rate.

Professor Fengxia of the Population Development Policy Research Center at Fudan University in China predicted in the South China Morning Post (SCMP) that “China’s total population will decrease more steeply in the next few years.” He added, “The annual number of newborns may rebound slightly as the COVID-19 pandemic ends, but it will not exceed 10 million,” and “The number of deaths, although there was an increase in COVID-19 deaths in early last year, will continue to increase due to population aging and will exceed 10 million every year.”