China’s Push for Solid-State Batteries: Plans to Revolutionize Energy Storage by 2025

China already possesses a solid-state battery capacity of 10 GWh and plans to increase it to over 128 GWh by 2025, according to a research note by CITIC Securities analysts cited by CnEVPost on January 26, 2024. While these figures are incomplete, they predict that solid-state lithium batteries will solve the three main challenges liquid lithium-ion batteries face: near-theoretical limit energy density, limited battery life, and safety issues.

The media reported that the research team expects that solid-state batteries will initially be used in high-end applications and will find broader uses as costs decrease. According to the research team, solid-state batteries will first be used in aerospace, medical, and some high-end new energy vehicles with low price sensitivity and strict safety performance requirements in 2023-2024.

CITIC Securities predicts that these batteries will begin to be applied in energy storage, drones, and home appliances after 2025. From 2027 onwards, solid-state batteries will be used on a large scale in electric vehicles and energy storage fields as costs decrease.

The research team predicts that by 2025 and 2030, the global penetration rates of solid-state batteries will reach approximately 1.7% and 8.4%, respectively, with their outputs reaching 38 GWh and 509 GWh, respectively. The research team pointed out that solid-state batteries have enhanced safety and high energy density and align with the future direction of high-capacity secondary battery development.

The research team revealed that semi-solid batteries, a transitional path, are already on the verge of mass production. According to the research team, the electrolyte of the semi-solid battery adopts a solid-liquid hybrid form, which has a high overlap with the existing lithium-ion battery supply chain. Semi-solid lithium batteries are expected to be industrialized much earlier, according to plans already announced by manufacturers, and are predicted to begin large-scale installations in 2024. Solid-state batteries still have many technical issues, and their mass utilization depends on cost reduction.

According to CITIC Securities, the current total costs of oxide semi-solid and sulfide semi-solid batteries are significantly higher than those of liquid lithium-ion batteries, at approximately 0.76 yuan ($0.106) per Wh and 0.86 yuan per Wh, respectively. The team pointed out that continuous cost reduction would require R&D investment and scale effects.

Whereas liquid batteries have a minimum lifespan of 20 years, it is predicted that solid batteries will take at least 20-30 years to achieve a 50% market share.