Moderna’s Q4 Results Exceed Expectations, Boosted by Deferred Revenue and Prospects of RSV Vaccine Approval

Moderna (MRNA) has released its fourth quarter reports for last year, exceeding market expectations.

Moderna’s fourth quarter revenue was $2.81 billion, a 44.7% decrease compared to the previous year, and the adjusted earnings per share (EPS) was $0.55, an 84.8% decrease from the last year. Despite these, the company successfully did a turnaround against the previous quarter, exceeding consensus estimates. This is attributed to the impact of deferred revenue of $600 million from the Global Alliance for Vaccine and Immunization (Gavi). Thanks to the better-than-expected performance and anticipation of the approval of the RSV vaccine, the stock price closed 13.5% higher on the day of the earnings announcement.

Above all, the imminent approval of the RSV (Respiratory Syncytial Virus) vaccine is acting as momentum for the rise in stock prices.

The FDA’s PDUFA (Prescription Drug User Fee Act) date for Moderna’s RSV infection vaccine mRNA-1345 has been set for May 1, with approval and release expected in the first half of the year.

O Ui Rim, a researcher at Korea Investment Securities, said, “mRNA-1345, like the COVID-19 vaccine, injects part of the virus that causes the infection into the body using mRNA technology. It can be produced faster than existing protein or antibody vaccines and even in relatively small facilities to be competitive in terms of price.”

The RSV infection market is expected to grow to $9.8 billion by 2028, and mRNA-1345 will capture about 20% of the market share by 2028.

In addition to the RSV vaccine, Moderna is also developing a personalized cancer vaccine, mRNA-4157. It is currently in phase 3 of clinical trials, with patient recruitment ongoing in collaboration with Merck.

Researcher O Ui Rim said, “Given that clinical trials are underway for major types of cancer (non-small-cell lung cancer, melanoma), the growth potential of the forward market is solid. However, as clinical trials take time, we maintain a long-term positive opinion.”