2024 U.S. Election Forecast: Culture War Looms, Trump at the Helm

Trump follows ‘Southern Strategy’ to target white mainstream
Biden faces economic challenges stemming from two wars as a vulnerability

“The U.S. election to be held in November next year will become a ‘Culture War’ (a clash between groups with different cultures, beliefs, and philosophies).”

Kim Dong-Suk, representative of the Korean American Grassroots Conference (KAGC), predicted on the 30th (local time) that the U.S. election, which is a year ahead, will evolve into a ‘culture war’ where American values collide and economic issues arising from ‘two wars’ will be a major variable. For the past 30 years, Representative Kim, who has led the Korean American voter movement, is known as one of the most knowledgeable Korean figures about the U.S. political situation, including the federal congress.

At a meeting with the Washington Correspondents on the day, Representative Kim predicted that next year’s U.S. election will unfold as a culture war between progressive and conservative forces over major issues such as LGBT rights, abortion, education, and immigration. He predicted that former President Donald Trump would lead this war, comparing it to the ‘Southern Strategy’ that former President Richard Nixon used to win the hearts of white and Christian voters.

Former President Nixon’s Southern Strategy, which focused on appealing to white people in the South who shared the perception that people with white racial and Christian values should be the mainstream in America, was continuously utilized in the 2016 and 2020 presidential campaigns where former President Trump ran.

In a phone call with The Seoul Economic Daily, Representative Kim said that at this point, President Joe Biden has the upper hand in a ‘return match’ between President Biden and former President Trump. However, he explained that the risks that President Biden faces over the next year are greater than those of former President Trump. He diagnosed, “The biggest risk for Biden is the economy. If the wars in Israel and Ukraine affect the stock market and Americans start to feel the recession after the liquidity party is over, his approval rating will inevitably drop.” He said of former President Trump, “He is securing a solid concrete support base,” but added, “The fact that a trial against Trump is proceeding with the primaries, and the enormous legal costs and election costs are incurred at the same time, will affect Trump’s election completion.”

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