Global war situation: The war in Ukraine enters its third year, and developments in the Middle East become uncertain.

On the 30th of last month, two Ukrainian men were comforting each other at Independence Square in the capital city of Kyiv, a memorial for soldiers who lost their lives in the Ukrainian War. /EPA Yonhap

The Ukrainian War, initiated by Russia’s invasion, marked its 624th day on the 9th (local time). When the Russian army crossed the border on February 24th last year, Russian President Vladimir Putin planned to hold a victory celebration within a few days. However, the war took an unexpected turn when the Ukrainian army successfully defended the capital, Kyiv.

The Russian army showed signs of no longer advancing when they retreated from Ukraine’s second-largest city, Kharkiv, in May last year. Since then, the Ukrainian army’s gradual counterattacks have continued. The Ukrainian army boosted their momentum by recapturing the southern stronghold of Kherson in November last year, but they have not been able to speed up the recovery of territory due to the delay in Western weapon support amid fears of escalation.

Ukraine’s original plan to launch a so-called counter-offensive this spring was delayed. They declared a counter-offensive in June, but the Russian army had already prepared by building multiple layers of minefields and trenches. The front lines are essentially at a stalemate as both sides continue to fight back and forth, and the war is indefinitely prolonged.

As the war, which has lasted over 20 months, is likely to continue for a longer period after next year, voices calling for a conclusion in some form are growing. The West is expressing fatigue from continued support, and the U.S. Congress, which leads support for Ukraine, has also suffered from budget processing. The international community’s attention is dispersed with the outbreak of war between the Palestinian armed faction Hamas and Israel.

In the meantime, U.S. media Foreign Policy pointed out in a recent report that Ukraine wants to recover all the territories stolen by Russia, but lacks firepower because the West does not provide enough weapons. They also pointed out that both Russia and Ukraine are not ready to end the war through so-called peace negotiations.

In fact, Ukraine began using the ATACMS long-range surface-to-surface missiles from the U.S. in the war, which they have persistently demanded since last year. However, analyses have emerged that the tide of war will not change with the current level of support, as Russia announced last month that it had intercepted the missile.

At the end of last month, the third Ukrainian Peace Conference was held in Malta with the participation of about 60 countries, but Russia, the actual party involved, was absent, making it impossible to give significant meaning. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has consistently stated that he must recover all lost territories, including the Crimean Peninsula, and Putin is seen as unwilling to give up the Ukrainian territory he currently occupies, even though he says the door to negotiations is open.

Ukraine and the West have claimed that Russia has already lost the war, as Ukraine has recaptured about half of the areas previously occupied by Russia. However, there is also an analysis that if the war ends with the current front line, it will be a victory for Putin, who has expanded his territory. There are also views that it is nearly impossible to fully recover Ukraine’s territory, as it is difficult for the West to dramatically change its weapon support strategy while Putin, who has repeatedly threatened nuclear use, holds the nuclear card.

However, there are also observations that Russia will have to accept an undesirable outcome, as Putin’s plan to establish a puppet regime and rule Ukraine has gone awry, and Ukraine’s military power has been strengthened enough to defend against Russia’s attacks in a conventional ground war.

Putin, who is seeking re-election in the presidential election in March next year, is expected to focus on Ukraine’s reconstruction as a barrier to prevent Russia’s southward advance, as he has to explain domestically about the strengthened armament of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), including Poland. The West is also expected to focus on exit strategies, including an imperfect ceasefire.