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The risk of a global nuclear conflict has reached its highest level in decades due to the ‘two wars’ materializing from the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Israel-Hamas clash. While the world has devised various mechanisms to deter nuclear expansion since the Cold War, inter-camp nuclear arms races are heating up again amid unprecedented security concerns.
In January, the US Nuclear Scientists Association (BSA) moved the minute hand of the ‘Doomsday Clock’ by 10 seconds for the first time in three years due to growing concerns over the use of nuclear weapons caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. As a result, the time left until midnight, which represents the destruction of the earth, has been reduced to 90 seconds.
Despite warnings from international organizations and experts, Russia is still not lowering its nuclear threat level. The Russian upper and lower houses passed a bill last month to withdraw the ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), a treaty that bans nuclear testing. The CTBT, approved by the UN General Assembly in 1996, prohibits nuclear testing in all locations, including the atmosphere, outer space, and underground.
The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace has described the CTBT as “one of the most important international treaties for world security.” However, Russia’s withdrawal from the treaty has exposed the weakened global nuclear deterrence. Although Russia maintains that it will comply with the nuclear testing ban treaty if the US does not resume nuclear testing, it demonstrated its nuclear power to the West by conducting a large-scale land, sea, and air nuclear deterrence exercise on the day it withdrew its ratification.
In addition, if Russia, which is suffering from a shortage of military supplies, transfers nuclear and missile-related military technology to North Korea in exchange for providing weapons for the Ukraine war, it will be difficult to avoid escalating the nuclear crisis on the Korean Peninsula. North Korea adopted a constitutional amendment at the 9th session of the 14th Supreme People’s Assembly in September, which explicitly states ‘the enhancement of nuclear weapons development.’
To make matters worse, the conflict between Israel and Hamas has sparked a nuclear crisis in the Middle East. Before Hamas’s surprise attack, the US had agreed to unfreeze $6 billion (approximately 8 trillion won) in oil export funds tied up in South Korea in exchange for the release of its nationals detained in Iran. However, as suspicions grew that Iran was indirectly supporting Hamas, the funds deposited in Qatar’s bank were frozen again.
The Middle East situation has affected relations between the US and Iran, pushing the nuclear agreement (JCPOA·Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action), which limits Iran’s uranium enrichment, even further away. According to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), as of August, Iran has 121.6 kg of uranium enriched up to 60%, which could be used for a nuclear bomb within two weeks.
The likelihood of Iran directly intervening in the conflict between Israel and Hamas and even deploying nuclear weapons is currently very low. However, experts fear that as tensions in the Middle East escalate, Iran could use its nuclear program as a diplomatic lever against the West.
In an interview with CNBC on the 24th of last month, Jamie Dimon, CEO of JP Morgan, identified nuclear expansion as the most serious issue facing humanity today. Dimon said, “There’s a lot of discussion about ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) recently,” but warned, “If we don’t exist here 100 years from now, it won’t be because of the climate crisis, but because of nuclear expansion.”
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