As the conflict between Israel and the Palestinian armed group Hamas surpasses a month, it has created a dual front with the ongoing war in Ukraine, now heading into its third year. The U.S. government, which must support both sides, finds itself in a very difficult situation with the presidential election just a year away.
The U.S. government’s need to manage two fronts simultaneously is the first such instance in over 80 years, since World War II when it fought on the European-Pacific front. Inside and outside the U.S. government, there are growing calls to wrap up at least one front amid concerns about inflation and economic recession.
Countries that have had to fight wars on multiple fronts, regardless of their power, often can’t withstand the pressure for long and collapse. This is because a two-front war leads to the consumption of a significant amount of manpower and resources, placing a huge financial burden on the country.
In this session, we will examine the current situation of the U.S. facing ‘two wars’ and also delve into the history of two-front wars that have put many powerful countries in difficult situations in the past.
◆News: “U.S. Pressures Ukraine for Peace Negotiations…Support for Two Wars Overwhelming”
First, let’s look at the news. On the 4th of this month (local time), NBC reported that the U.S. and the European Union (EU) have requested Ukraine to discuss a peace proposal to end the war in Ukraine, quoting a high-ranking official from the Biden administration. According to the report, while the U.S. and EU officially continue to support Ukraine, they are known to be pressuring Ukraine to make concessions.
Ukraine, too, is strongly arguing that U.S. and Western support for Ukraine must continue as all international attention is focused on the conflict between Israel and Hamas. In a press conference after a meeting with Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, in Kyiv, Ukraine, on the 4th, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky completely denied NBC’s report, stating, “No one among our partners pressured us to talk to Russia and give something,” and “The war in the Middle East is stealing the world’s attention from Ukraine. This is Russia’s goal.”
However, the U.S. government, which needs to support two wars in the Middle East and Europe simultaneously, is increasingly finding itself in a difficult situation. Particularly in the U.S., there are growing calls to stop supporting Ukraine. In a situation where the U.S. economy is very difficult and severe inflation is threatening consumer prices, supporting two wars is seen as an excessive burden.
According to a survey conducted last month by Gallup, 41% of the 1,500 U.S. adults surveyed said “U.S. support for Ukraine is excessive.” This is a significant increase compared to the 29% response rate to the same question in a survey conducted in June. Also, the response rate to the statement “Even if Ukraine gives up the territory occupied by Russia, the U.S. should make every effort to end the war as soon as possible” also rose significantly to 43%, up from 36% in June.
Especially, it’s been 80 years since the U.S. had to support two wars simultaneously, causing considerable confusion in the U.S. government. There are concerns that if the U.S. gets entangled in wars in Europe and the Middle East where the regions, cultures, and histories are completely different, it could suffer significant national power losses, just like many powerful countries in the past.
◆History 1: Ming Dynasty, which went bankrupt after fighting a three-front war against Mongolia, Joseon, and Yunnan
In the past, having to fight multiple front wars often led to significant national power losses and could even lead to national bankruptcy, creating a very dangerous situation. As a result, most countries adopted the strategy of ‘distant friendship and nearby attack’ where they maintained friendly relations with countries they did not share borders with and waged war against countries they directly faced.
However, there were often cases where they were forced into multiple front wars due to unavoidable circumstances. There are historical cases where long-term multiple front wars led to the destruction of the state. A case in point is the Ming Dynasty in the 16th century, which helped Joseon during the Japanese invasions of Korea. The Ming Dynasty, which was considered the wealthiest country in the world with a population of 150 million at the time, went bankrupt due to fighting three wars simultaneously.
In 1592, when the Japanese invasions of Korea broke out, three wars broke out simultaneously in the Ming Dynasty. These three-front wars, which occurred during the reign of the 13th Emperor of the Ming Dynasty, Wanli, are called the ‘Three Great Campaigns of Wanli.’ The Ming Dynasty suffered a significant financial loss due to these wars, which included the seven-year-long Japanese invasions of Korea and two other fronts, leading to a significant weakening of national power afterward.
The first front of the Three Great Campaigns of Wanli was the ‘Rebellion of Pubei,’ which broke out in the Mongolian region in February 1592. It is usually called the ‘Rebellion of Ningxia,’ named after the place where the rebellion broke out. This rebellion was led by Pubei, a Mongolian who originally surrendered to the Ming Dynasty, and was suppressed after eight months of fierce battle. The war was led by General Li Rusong, who was sent to Joseon during the Japanese invasions of Korea.
Immediately after the rebellion was suppressed, the Ming army led by General Li Rusong was dispatched to Joseon, where the Japanese invasions of Korea had broken out. Along with the seven-year-long military dispatch to Joseon, Emperor Wanli purchased one million stones of grain from Shandong Province to support Joseon. Although they eventually won, it resulted in a huge financial loss for the Ming Dynasty.
Then, in 1597, when the Japanese invasions of Korea were still ongoing, a military family named Yang, who had control over the area of Paju in today’s Yunnan Province, rebelled. Named after Yang Yinglong, the ruler of Paju at the time, it is called ‘Yang Yinglong’s Rebellion.’ This war lasted until 1600. In other words, the Ming Dynasty had to fight major wars in three regions: Mongolia, Joseon, and Yunnan, all at once.
In the end, although the Ming Dynasty managed to suppress all three fronts, the chronic fiscal deficit caused by this led to the downfall of the Ming Dynasty. In 1620, just 24 years after the death of Emperor Wanli, the Ming Dynasty was destroyed by the Qing Dynasty. The financial deficit made it difficult to supply military provisions, and several expedition plans to the Liaodong region were canceled due to lack of funds, which eventually failed to stop the expansion of the Qing Dynasty and led to the collapse of the Ming Dynasty.
◆History 2: Germany Forced Into a Two-Front War and the U.S. Fighting on Two Fronts
The connection between multiple front wars and significant national power losses was also true in modern times. Germany, which had to conduct a two-front war on the Western and Eastern fronts during the First and Second World Wars, eventually collapsed due to a shortage of military supplies while handling two fronts. Especially during the Second World War, a significant loss of power occurred in the Eastern Front against the Soviet Union, reversing the tide of the war.
The reckless expansion of the front by Italy, an ally of Germany, and Japan, which brought the U.S. into the war, also contributed to the downfall. In October 1940, Italy, which joined the war, invaded Egypt and Greece and attacked the southeastern mountainous region of France, expanding the front indiscriminately, but all ended in defeat. As a result, Germany had to clean up these fronts instead, suffering damage from the dispersion of power.
Japan, which was conducting a multiple front war by expanding the front in a radial pattern to the north, south, east, and west, also suffered a significant loss of manpower and resources and was defeated. After starting the Sino-Japanese War in 1937 and not ending it properly, Japan expanded the front to the Philippines and Southeast Asia, and then opened a front with the U.S. by launching the Pearl Harbor attack in 1941. In other words, Japan created a multiple front war situation on its own.
As a result, public opinion in the U.S., which had been negative about joining the war, quickly changed to participation. The U.S. then conducted a two-front war by fighting in the European and Pacific fronts simultaneously, winning both wars and emerging as the world’s sole superpower.
◆Implication: Controversy Over the Return of U.S. ‘Two Wars’ Strategy
There is controversy within the U.S. over the two wars it is facing after 80 years. There are growing calls for a review of the ‘Win-hold-win’ strategy, a two-front maintenance strategy that was abolished in 2012.
This ‘Win-hold-win’ strategy was put forward by the George Bush administration during the Gulf War in 1990. It was a strategy to have the war capacity to win in both the Middle East and Northeast Asia, the core hegemonic regions of the U.S., in case a war broke out. However, it was abolished in 2012 by the Barack Obama administration due to the enormous war expenses involved.
Afterward, the U.S. war strategy was downsized to the ‘One Plus’ strategy, which aims to win one war and suppress a conflict in one place. The person who led this was the current President Biden, who was the vice president during the Obama administration. It’s quite ironic that he is now arguing for an expansion of forces just 11 years after leading the reduction of forces.
As the U.S. presidential election approaches in a year, the issue of the two-war strategy is expected to remain a hot topic in U.S. politics. Depending on whether American citizens will understand the situation of the U.S. taking on the role of ‘world’s policeman’ again in a situation where the U.S. is facing significant economic difficulties, not only the U.S. presidential election but also the global security situation is expected to change significantly.
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