U.S.-China Showdown in San Francisco: Major Talks Set to Influence Global Dynamics

President Joe Biden of the United States (right) and President Xi Jinping of China are shaking hands at the G20 Summit held in Bali, Indonesia last November. AP-Yonhap News

The U.S. and China’s leaders, who have been at odds with each other, will meet face-to-face for the first time in a year on the 15th (local time). The meeting takes place amid ongoing ‘two wars’ and a global economy that is dividing into pro-U.S. and pro-China factions, marking a significant turning point in global politics. While there are expectations of some concrete achievements, such as a ban on the deployment of artificial intelligence (AI) on nuclear weapons and drones, it is predicted that they will not be able to narrow down their differences on key issues such as semiconductor and crucial mineral export controls, and the Taiwan issue.

On the 10th, the U.S. and China simultaneously announced that President Joe Biden and President Xi Jinping will hold a meeting in San Francisco, where the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) conference (11-17th) is taking place. For this, President Xi will visit San Francisco from the 14th to the 17th. It has been six years since President Xi set foot on American soil, last in 2017. The two leaders will meet face-to-face for the first time in a year since their bilateral meeting on the sidelines of the G20 Summit in Bali, Indonesia last November. Since the Chinese reconnaissance balloon incident in February last year, the two leaders have not even spoken on the phone.

The atmosphere outside the summit is warming up. China, which has been reducing grain imports from the U.S. and pursuing food self-sufficiency for the past few years, unusually purchased more than 3 million tons of soybeans from the U.S. last week. Bloomberg evaluated this as a “friendly gesture to improve relations with the U.S.” The Beijing performance of the Philadelphia Philharmonic Orchestra, which was considered a symbol of U.S.-China thawing, was held for the first time in 50 years on the 10th. President Xi sent a letter to the orchestra representative, saying, “This performance will be recorded in history.”

A high-ranking U.S. official said, “All elements will be on the table at the summit,” indicating that a wide range of topics, including the North Korean nuclear issue, will be discussed. He also said, “Some results will be substantive and different from the past.” In relation to this, the South China Morning Post (SCMP) quoted multiple sources as saying, “The U.S. and Chinese leaders will agree to ban the deployment of AI on automatic weapon systems like drones and nuclear weapons.” This means that they intend to prevent at least such accidental incidents, as the operation of nuclear weapons and drones by AI without human control could lead to catastrophic results. It also seems likely that a communication line will be established to manage the relationship between the two countries stably. In fact, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Chinese Vice Premier Liu He held the first meeting of the U.S.-China Economic and Financial Working Group in San Francisco for two days from the 9th, and Secretary Yellen agreed to visit China next year. The resumption of high-level military talks between the U.S. and China, and joint response to fentanyl are also expected to be announced at this meeting.

However, the New York Times (NYT) quoted experts as saying, “Don’t expect breakthroughs on issues such as the Taiwan issue, restrictions on high-tech semiconductor exports, and human rights issues in China.” While Secretary Yellen agreed not to pursue decoupling in her meeting with Vice Premier Liu, she expressed concern about China’s control over crucial mineral exports like graphite and non-market policies. On the other hand, Vice Premier Liu clearly expressed his concern about sanctions on Chinese companies and control over exports to China. The SCMP quoted a source as saying, “The joint statement of the U.S.-China summit is still incomplete due to ‘wording’ issues related to the war in Ukraine and Israel,” and “No agreement has been reached on issues related to the upcoming presidential election in Taiwan in January next year and the activities of the Chinese military in the South China Sea.”