An analysis suggests that the U.S. could fall behind China in the long run if a war broke out due to the collapse of the U.S.’s manufacturing base, including the defense industry.
According to the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), it simulated a situation where the U.S. and China went to war over Taiwan and predicted that the U.S. would defend Taiwan’s freedom, but at a tremendous cost.
The U.S. is expected to lose up to 20 vessels, including two aircraft carriers, destroyers, and cruisers, while China is expected to lose over 50 major warships.
Experts predict that while the immediate outcome may be a stalemate, China will eventually win because it can build new warships faster than the U.S.
According to Eric Labs, a naval analyst at the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), China has built 17 destroyers and cruisers, equivalent to the U.S. has produced over six years in just the last two years.
Labs commented on the current state of industrial competitiveness and shipbuilding, comparing China’s position to that of the U.S. at the onset of World War II. They added that, in contrast, the U.S. now faces a shortfall in industrial capacity to construct numerous warships rapidly.
After the end of the Cold War in the 1990s, the U.S. government started asking defense companies to produce weapons at lower costs due to a reduction in the defense budget.
As a result, U.S. defense companies hardly secured the surplus production capacity necessary to increase productivity.
Meanwhile, as all types of labor-intensive production facilities, including manufacturing, moved to East Asia, the overall manufacturing capacity of the U.S. declined. At the same time, China emerged as a country controlling global supply chains.
The WSJ pointed out that while it’s true that Chinese weapons are generally inferior to those of the U.S., China is gaining an edge in sheer quantity, and the performance gap is gradually narrowing. They suggested that cost savings are necessary to overcome these issues and bolster the military. It recommended looking to allies like South Korea and Japan or considering the design of South Korean destroyers with construction and maintenance costs in mind.
Susanna V. Blume, a defense expert at CSIS, suggested that the U.S. Department of Defense could pay domestic defense companies to maintain surplus production capacity and parts inventory or utilize the capabilities of South Korea and Japan, which rank second and third in the world in shipbuilding.
Ronald O’Rourke, a Congressional Research Service (CRS) analyst, suggested looking to South Korea’s example to increase production efficiency.
He explained that South Korean shipbuilders design warships with manufacturing and maintenance costs in mind based on their civilian experience. South Korea’s Aegis destroyers, heavier than similar U.S. vessels, have simpler installations of complex electronic equipment, thus saving costs.
By. Hwang Soo Min
Most Commented