South Korean Defense Export Deal with Poland on Shaky Ground Amid Political Shift

Arrival of K-2 Tanks and K-9 Self-Propelled Guns in Poland Raises Concerns
The Potential Invalidation of a Multibillion-Dollar Contract
Political Opposition’s Stance on Defense Contracts

Local media report that Hanwha Aerospace’s contract with Poland, signed on the 4th, for the K9A1 6-door and K9PL 146-door exports, worth 3 trillion won ($2.5 billion), could face invalidation.

According to the report, a key figure in the Polish opposition coalition, which won the general election last October, has taken the position that it could invalidate the government’s $2.6 billion (approximately 3.37 trillion won) defense contract recently signed with Korea.

Political Developments in Poland

According to a report by Reuters, Szymon Hołownia, who transitioned from a TV personality to the role of parliament speaker, remarked in a local radio interview on the 10th (local time) that the Law and Justice Party (PiS), having lost the majority in the recent general election, has openly stated that the subsequent government has the authority to nullify the contracts they signed following the election.

Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz, nominated as the next Minister of Defense, also stated in an interview with local media on the 9th that he would “analyze and evaluate” the contracts signed by the previous government after the general election. Observers note that the K-defense exports, valued at 3 trillion won, are at risk of being scrapped.

Concerns Over K-Defense Exports Due to Political Changes

Reuters added that Hołownia, the new parliament speaker, said that after the general election on October 15, PiS should have limited its authority to national management without spending the budget. Reports indicate that changes in Poland’s political situation could ignite challenges for Korea’s defense exports.

The domestic defense industry has also been put on alert by this report. The atmosphere is tense as they keep a close eye on the political situation in Poland, which they describe as “a completely unexpected situation.”

The day before, the Speaker of the Polish House primarily targeted “contracts signed after the general election” in his remarks, a period during which Hanwha Aerospace signed its second contract.

A Hanwha Aerospace official said, “It is difficult to predict the internal political situation in Poland, but we believe that Poland will not turn its back on the military modernization project in an instant,” but still showed concern.

Political Shift in Poland

In the general election last October, PiS, the ruling party and a nationalist right-wing conservative party, became the largest party in the lower house with 35.4% of the vote but failed to secure a majority. As a result, it handed over the government to the opposition coalition, which succeeded in securing a majority of seats. It is on the verge of a change of government for the first time in eight years.

The recently signed export contract is a performance contract that confirms the quantity and timing of the second batch of exports, following a non-binding basic contract for the second batch, after the first performance contract to export 672 K9 self-propelled guns to the Polish government last July. Under this agreement, 6 K9A1s are scheduled for delivery in 2025, and 146 K9PLs are slated for delivery between 2026 and 2027. The K9A1, currently in use in Korea, is a model upgraded with first-stage performance enhancements, while the K9PL is a version modified to meet the specific requirements of the Polish army. It has a Polish fire control and battlefield management system.

The opposition coalition, which has secured a majority, has been pointing out that the dependence on Korean weapons systems in the country is increasing. Key figures of the incoming government have stepped forward to review the contract.

Analysts interpret the remarks made in anticipation of a government change to imply that the trillion-won contract signed by the Law and Justice Party government, now seen as a “vegetative government” amid a complex national financial situation, needs review for not consulting the new government. On this matter, Speaker Hołownia stated, “After the general election, the Law and Justice Party should have limited their work to managing national finances instead of spending large amounts of public money.”

History of Contract Cancellations After Government Changes

However, the situation is not easy for K-defense. In the past, Poland has canceled existing weapons contracts after a change of government. In 2015, Poland signed a preliminary agreement to purchase 50 Airbus military Caracal helicopters from France but canceled the contract and bought American helicopters after the government changed the following year.

The Civic Coalition of the Polish opposition secured a majority of seats in the Polish general election held on October 15 last year, confirming a change of government. The new government officially launched when Donald Tusk, former permanent chairman of the European Union (EU) summit, assumed his role as the new prime minister.

Mariusz Błaszczak’s Criticism of Contract Cancellation
Warnings About Replacing Korean Equipment

In response, Mariusz Błaszczak, Poland’s Minister of Defense, who was proactive in introducing Korean weapons, criticized it as virtually announcing the cancellation of the contract, saying, “They (the next government) will pursue a populist policy of replacing Korean equipment with Polish weapons, and in the end, we may get nothing.”

In a social media post on X, previously known as Twitter, Minister Błaszczak cautioned that there are discussions about substituting the equipment Poland is acquiring from Korea with domestically produced arms from the Polish industry, a popular notion. He warned that this approach could lead to Poland ending up with nothing.

Assessment of the Situation and Possibility of Contract Changes

The domestic defense industry is closely watching the possibility of Poland changing the contract, but it does not see the situation as pessimistic. It is an urgent task for Poland, which borders Ukraine, which is at war with Russia, to modernize its military and weapons systems as soon as possible. Currently, they judge that there is no alternative to the K-Defense weapons system, which is efficient in price and has been verified.

An official from a defense company said, “The reason Poland chose a Korean defense company is because it is urgent to modernize the military, and it is difficult to find another alternative where weapons delivery is as fast as Korea,” and “Even if the government changes, it is unlikely to change the existing plan easily.”

By. Hyun Ho Lee