North Korea’s Nuclear Reactor Back in Business: Is a 7th Nuke Test Coming?
|
The South Korean and U.S. governments have confirmed that North Korea appears to have begun test operations at its Experimental Light Water Reactor (ELWR) in Yongbyon ahead of the general and presidential elections.
As North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has publicly declared that he would “not hesitate to launch a nuclear attack,” it is expected that North Korea will show off its presence by securing an additional means to produce plutonium, a raw material for nuclear weapons, if it starts operating the reactor in earnest.
Diplomatic sources revealed on the 25th that Rafael Grossi, the Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), reported at a board meeting in Vienna, Austria, about recent activities at North Korea’s Yongbyon reactor. Grossi noted some activity at the site, explicitly mentioning the observation of drainage from the reactor’s cooling system since mid-October. He interpreted these developments as probable test runs by North Korea, aimed at increasing the reactor’s output following the initial loading of nuclear fuel.
A special researcher at the Stimson Center, who once served as Deputy Director General of the IAEA, also claimed on Voice of America (VOA) that “If North Korea restarts the Yongbyon reactor, it can theoretically produce about 33 to 44 pounds of plutonium per year,” and “This is a scale that can produce 3 to 4 times more plutonium than the existing 5MW(e) reactor.”
Analysts say that North Korea’s nuclear activity reveals Kim’s intention to highlight Yongbyon as a useful negotiation card to threaten the international community. Yongbyon is where the U.S. invests real-time intelligence assets to monitor nuclear-related trends. Kim mentioned it as ‘another basis to support the increase in nuclear warhead holdings’ at the Workers’ Party Plenary Meeting at the end of last year.
Professor Im Eul Chul of Kyungnam University’s Institute for Far Eastern Studies analyzed, “North Korea is expected to focus on raising the level of security anxiety to the maximum by taking ultra-hardline warning measures every time South Korea-U.S. military training and the deployment of U.S. strategic assets on the Korean Peninsula take place.”
Chung Sung Jang, director of the Sejong Institute’s Korea Peninsula Strategy Center, said, “North Korea is strengthening its nuclear power far beyond the level necessary for survival or negotiation,” and “It aims to break the status quo on the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia, weaken the U.S. nuclear umbrella, and force their demands.”
A government official from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs said, “The government is monitoring the trend of North Korea’s nuclear facilities based on cooperation between South Korea and the U.S.,” and “North Korea continues to produce nuclear materials in violation of UN Security Council resolutions.” He also said, “North Korea has declared at the Workers’ Party Plenary Meeting at the end of last year that it will exponentially increase nuclear warheads and continues to provoke ballistic missile provocations, harming peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula and around the world.” The U.S. State Department also noted, “The test operation of North Korea’s new light water reactor raises serious concerns, including safety.”
Meanwhile, North Korea is set to hold a plenary meeting of the Workers’ Party Central Committee this week to present its policy direction for the new year. Kim’s ‘conclusion’ speech at the plenary meeting is usually reported on January 1. This time, Kim’s remarks are expected to confirm the first draft of the new year’s policy on foreign policy towards South Korea and the U.S., as well as on economy and defense policy.
By. Young Hun Park
Most Commented