National Intelligence Service Unusually Discloses Intelligence
North Korea, Unexpected Possibility of Military and Cyber Provocations in 2024
The National Intelligence Service has announced that there is a high possibility that North Korea will carry out military provocations in anticipation of our country’s major political schedule, including the general elections early next year.
On the 28th, the National Intelligence Service predicted in a press release, “There is a high possibility that North Korea will unexpectedly carry out unpredictable military and cyber provocations during the volatile period of 2024 when we have general elections and the U.S. presidential election.”
Earlier, North Korea carried out provocations such as nuclear tests, drone infringement, Taepodong missile launch, and GPS jamming ahead of the 2016 general elections. In March 2020, just before the general elections, it fired short-range ballistic missiles four times in a row for a month.
According to the National Intelligence Service, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un recently told his closest aides to “prepare a plan that could cause a big ripple in South Korea early next year.” The National Intelligence Service’s disclosure of the intelligence obtained through a press release to the media is unusual. It is interpreted as a warning to North Korea to restrain itself.
In June, North Korea stationed Kim Young Chol, who carried out the Cheonan ship and Yeonpyeong Island provocations, as an advisor to the United Front Department, and Ri Yong Gil and Park Jung Chon, who committed the DMZ landmine atrocity, as the Chief of General Staff and the Director of Military Administration in August. The National Intelligence Service analyzed that “the three main provocateurs have been returned to the military and the intelligence agency.”
Also, in August, North Korea conducted a full-scale command exercise aiming at the occupation of the entire Republic of Korea for the first time, threatening that it “will not hesitate to hit civilian facilities to cause social and political chaos.” Last month, it carried out a military reconnaissance satellite launch provocation. When the South Korean government suspended some provisions of the 9·19 Inter-Korean Agreement as a corresponding measure, it also responded with a complete abolition of the military agreement.
The National Intelligence Service said, “Considering the past behavior of North Korea and the recent level of threats against the South, North Korea’s provocation is expected at the beginning of the year,” and “We will make every effort to establish early warning and preparedness postures with related ministries.”
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