North Korea’s 3-Day Artillery Fire Spree: Are Provocations Linked to Elections? What We Know

North Korea is escalating tensions on the Korean Peninsula by conducting artillery fire near the Northern Limit Line (NLL) for three consecutive days. The return of Park Jong Chon, the most aggressive figure in the North Korean military, to the top military post after a year of dismissal and the placement of key figures in nuclear and missile development in essential positions have heightened concerns about more intense military provocations.

The North Korean military fired more than 200 coastal artillery shells in the northern part of Baengnyeong Island and Yeonpyeong Island on the 5th. On the 6th, they fired about 60 shells in the northwest area, all of which fell into the buffer zone northeast of the Northern Limit Line (NLL) in the West Sea. On the 7th, the sound of shells fired by North Korea was also detected.

The maritime buffer zone was established around the NLL in the West and East Seas to prevent naval clashes, according to the 9.19 South-North Military Agreement signed in 2018. Artillery fire and maritime maneuver training are violations of the military agreement. In response, our military fired about 400 shells into the West Sea buffer zone on the afternoon of the 5th. This is the first time the military has fired into the buffer zone since the signing of the 9.19 Military Agreement. There was no response to the second North Korean provocation firing.

The recent provocation by North Korea is believed to be related to the return of Park Jong Chon. Park Jong Chon, a former artillery commander, warned of a “terrible price to pay” targeting the South Korea-US joint air exercise in November 2022 and immediately fired a ballistic missile south of the Northern Limit Line (NLL).

He was elected as the Artillery Command and Vice Chief of the KPA General Staff and also selected as a party secretary at the 9th Plenary Session of the 8th Central Committee of the Workers’ Party held at the headquarters of the Pyongyang Workers’ Party Central Committee from the 26th to the 30th of last month. He returned to his position a year after being summoned and dismissed at the party plenary session in December 2022. Key figures in North Korea’s nuclear and missile development and the military-industrial complex also rose to key positions. On the other hand, it is known that a considerable number of cabinet members who led economic policy have been replaced.

There is also an interpretation that North Korea’s repeated military provocations are intended to influence the general elections in South Korea in April and the US presidential elections in November. Jeong Seong Jang, director of the Sejong Institute’s Korea Peninsula Strategy Center, stated that “the US is entering a presidential election phase this year, and it is difficult to concentrate on international issues” and “North Korea may attempt to neutralize the NLL in the West Sea based on its confidence in possessing nuclear weapons.”

Professor Yang Moo Jin of the University of North Korean Studies explained this North Korean provocation, “It shows the intention to restore military training due to the abolition of the 9.19 military agreement,” and “It shows the current state of inter-Korean relations that are moving toward confrontation and conflict rather than for the general elections.” He warned, “The Korean Peninsula is returning to the Cold War era of blame shifting and internal discord,” and “The military of South and North Korea must always remember that when verbal threats turn into action, it is not the end of the regime, but the end of the nation, and the map of the Korean Peninsula disappears.”

By. Yoon Sun Choi