North Korean Chairman Kim Jong-un has been demonstrating a hostile attitude towards South Korea, even going as far as declaring it as the most hostile nation in their constitution, and not ruling out the possibility of war. However, predictions have emerged that a full-scale war, akin to the second Korean War, is unlikely. Some analysts suggest that this display of confidence is due to the current international situation being favorable to North Korea.
On the 15th, Goh Yu-hwan, former director of the Institute for Unification, attended the New Year’s discussion forum ‘2024, On Hope,’ jointly hosted by the Korean Peninsula Peace Forum and Democratic Party representative Hong Ik-pyo. Regarding the possibility of a full-scale war, he stated, “I don’t think North Korea would be that reckless.” He added, “There is a possibility of an accidental clash or an unintended escalation, but they are more likely to use nuclear weapons as a threat rather than deploying them.”
Former director Goh analyzed, “North Korea comes out for dialogue when they face a crisis that is difficult to handle. A moderate crisis is good for maintaining the leader system.” He also suggested, “Currently, they seem to be trying to resolve inter-Korean relations with the confidence of a nuclear-armed nation.”
Professor Lim Won-hyuk from the KDI School of Public Policy and Management, who also participated as a panelist, predicted that North Korea would not easily take action, stating, “It’s a dangerous situation if North Korea believes that neither South Korea nor the U.S. will retaliate against their attacks. But right now, there is little reason for South Korea and the U.S. not to retaliate against North Korea’s attacks, and North Korea knows this.”
Professor Lim expressed doubt about whether North Korea would “commit suicide,” considering that Chairman Kim has been making public appearances with his daughter, Kim Ju-ae (presumed name), since the end of last year, and succession talks are emerging.
Regarding why North Korea continues to use hostile language against South Korea, former director Goh stated, “North Korea has confidence that it can survive in the new Cold War structure. Especially since Russia is backing North Korea,” adding, “The current situation has created conditions for North Korea to adopt different strategic tactics from those it has used in the past.”
Kim Joon-hyung, former director of the National Diplomatic Academy and chairman of the Diplomatic Plaza, who participated as a panelist, said, “The current external environment is temporarily favorable to North Korea. It could be said that it’s the best environment for North Korea in the past 20 years.” He evaluated that North Korea could have gained confidence in the process of the world becoming multipolar amid the strategic competition between the U.S. and China.
Yang Moo-jin, president of the Graduate School of North Korean Studies, presented at the forum that North Korea has various objectives, including securing a justification for the completion of five major defense projects such as nuclear missile development, judging that the socialist solidarity with China and Russia in the international situation is in line with national interests, and the formation of a confrontational structure is more conducive to controlling the people, taking into account the U.S. presidential election and the South Korean general election to demonstrate its presence and secure leadership.
There are also assessments that North Korea is not prepared to start a full-scale war. President Yang stated, “At this stage, North Korea is focusing on the advancement of nuclear power, but since 2014, attack weapons such as tanks and armored vehicles have been significantly aging, so the realization of military unification will take a lot of time.”
The fact that North Korea is mentioning the possibility of war while setting conditions is another reason why the possibility of a full-scale war is not high. Chairman Kim Jong-un has repeatedly stated that he will not start a war first, although he will not avoid it.
Former director Goh criticized, “Looking at the contents of the party conference and the statements coming out of North Korea, they are saying that if the U.S. and the South do something, they will use nuclear weapons or conquer the territory. The logic itself is conditional. However, our National Intelligence Service has been saying since the beginning of the year that if Kim Jong-un orders a military provocation, there will soon be a military clash.”
The fact that the U.S. does not want a war on the Korean Peninsula was also presented as a reason why the possibility of a full-scale war is not high. Chairman Kim Joon-hyung pointed out, “The U.S. is anxious about a war on the Korean Peninsula. The U.S. can’t carry out three wars (following Ukraine and the Middle East).”
Chairman Kim, however, said, “President Joe Biden of the U.S. is perceived as walking a narrow path between neoconservatives and liberals. President Biden wants to provoke a crisis on the Korean Peninsula to use the Korean (bond) and the Indo-Pacific (to contain China), but he also wants to prevent it from leading to war. This is extremely dangerous.” He added, “The U.S. thinks it can stop it because it has wartime operational control, but the reality is that there is no sure peace control mechanism.”
Regarding the prediction that if former U.S. President Donald Trump is elected, dialogue between North Korea and the U.S. may resume and tensions on the Korean Peninsula may somewhat ease, Chairman Kim said, “The person who hit North Korea from behind is Trump,” and predicted, “The U.S. will have to make much more concessions than it offered to North Korea in 2018 (for North Korea-U.S. dialogue to be possible).”
He said, “It is an excessive leap to say that North Korea is reaching out to the U.S. and Japan now,” and predicted, “North Korea, after being hit from behind by the U.S. at the 2019 Hanoi North Korea-U.S. summit, will raise its nuclear power to the maximum during the Yoon Suk-yeol administration and then come out in a much more advantageous situation (in negotiations).”
There was also a problem raised about the government only responding strongly, not resolving the situation, to North Korea’s behavior. Former director Goh Yu-hwan advised, “It’s important how to manage the situation, but it seems that the South Korean government wants to escalate it. We need to think about who benefits from a war on the Korean Peninsula and whether it’s more beneficial to manage the situation or escalate tensions about economic issues including the Korean discount.”
Chairman Kim Joon-hyung criticized, “The Yoon Suk-yeol administration is not doing diplomacy right now, it’s waging war. They see North Korea, China, Russia, Iran, etc. as enemies and value-allied countries such as the U.S. and Japan as friends, but they are mostly being taken advantage of by value-allied countries and can’t even manage the enemies.”
President Yang Moo-jin argued that South Korea should not abandon the definition of a special relationship that it has brought through inter-Korean relations, considering that North Korea’s recent behavior is similar to the principle that East Germany had before unification.
He introduced, “In the mid-1970s, East Germany’s Secretary Honecker argued for a two-nation, two-state system, separating even the concept of a nation, despite the Basic Agreement between East and West Germany. After that, at the party conference in 1976, they deleted the unification-related clause in the party’s regulations and explicitly stated that there are two different national states in Germany.”
President Yang argued, “Despite East Germany maintaining a two-state system, West Germany did not succumb to it and continued to pursue a national state unification plan based on the theory of special relations, and consistently pushed for an Eastern policy regardless of regime change.” He asserted, “We must continue to uphold the provisional special relationship theory that aims for unification between the two countries, which we have maintained through the South-North Basic Agreement.”
He emphasized, “We should not give up the policy goal of denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula and we need to comprehensively and simultaneously remove the obstacles to dialogue with North Korea. In this process, a peace alliance between South and North Korea should unfold, and negotiations for the normalization of North-South relations should also proceed. Trust can be built between South and North Korea and develop into lasting peace when these efforts are carried out seriously and consistently.”
By. Sharon Lee
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