Unusual Security Situation on the Korean Peninsula
North Korea’s Provocations and “Highest Level Crisis” Concerns
From the beginning of the year, the security situation on the Korean Peninsula has been far from ordinary. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has declared South Korea a “hostile state” and continues to provoke with advanced military power, leading to concerns abroad that it’s the “highest level crisis since the Korean War in 1950.”
Experts on North Korea believe that the threat level from North Korea will not be lower than it is now. They suggest that North Korea could escalate its provocations to influence the South Korean general elections this year. There’s also speculation that North Korea could soon carry out localized provocations against South Korea.
Expert Opinions on North Korean Threats
Professor Park Won Kon of the North Korean Studies Department at Ewha Womans University said, “It is correct to say that North Korea has started provocations targeting the South Korean general elections,” and “North Korea’s constant violation of the 9·19 military agreement is to shift the responsibility for the breakdown of the military agreement to the Yoon administration.”
Some predict that North Korea will escalate its military provocations targeting the U.S. elections. Hong Min, a senior researcher at the Korea Institute for National Unification, assessed that North Korea’s announcement about making its nuclear force policy constitutional and the constitutionalization of ending national relations are primarily anti-US messages targeting the next U.S. administration in light of the upcoming U.S. elections.
Professor Park also analyzed, “There is a high possibility of a large-scale, high-intensity provocation that would be beneficial to Trump in the U.S. elections,” and “As Kim Jong Un’s primary preference is Trump, there is a high possibility that he will try to more clearly show the failure of the Biden administration’s North Korea policy.”
Differing Views on Likelihood of War
However, experts on North Korea are divided in their opinions about the likelihood of North Korea starting a war. Robert Carlin, a researcher at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies in the U.S., and Professor Siegfried Hecker warned on the 11th (local time) through an article in the North Korea-specialized media 38 North that the Korean Peninsula is in the most dangerous situation.
Professor Park diagnosed the possibility of war as low, saying, “North Korea wants but cannot because South Korea and the U.S. have overwhelmingly superior military power.”
On the other hand, Professor Yang Moo Jin of the University of North Korean Studies said, “It is true that the Korean Peninsula is in a touch-and-go situation in that North Korea has defined South Korea as a hostile relationship and the chicken game of strong-to-strong confrontation continues between North Korea and the U.S.,” but “I disagree with mentioning a war between North Korea and the U.S.”
Call for Dialogue and Diplomacy
Most experts concur that “an attempt at dialogue” is crucial for achieving greater stability on the Korean Peninsula than currently exists.
Professor Yang stressed the importance of the government managing the situation on the Korean Peninsula with greater stability than ever before. He pointed out that mere restraint is insufficient, emphasizing the necessity for dialogue to accompany it. He also advised on the need for a balanced approach in diplomacy, focusing on the Korea-U.S. alliance and Korea-China cooperation.
Professor Park highlighted the importance of reinforcing cooperation between South Korea and the U.S. while continuously advocating for dialogue. He pointed out that even in a phase of restraint, the underlying principle of a grand strategy should be to balance restraint and dialogue. Therefore, he emphasized the necessity of conveying a message that the door to dialogue remains open, even in current circumstances.
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