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Amidst analysis suggesting that the situation on the Korean Peninsula is as dangerous as it was just before the Korean War and that Kim Jong-un, Chairman of the State Affairs Commission of North Korea, may not be bluffing about ‘war’, Tae Yong-ho, a member of the People Power Party and a defector from North Korea, claimed that this is “an overly exaggerated evaluation.”
Thae appeared on the YTN Radio program ‘News King Park Ji-hoon’ on the 15th and said, “American experts have evaluated the current confrontation between North and South Korea as being similar to the situation before the Korean War. However, the structural situation is completely different now compared to then.”
Tae Yong-ho continued by saying, “During the Korean War, there were no U.S. troops stationed in Korea, and there was no joint military structure between our military and the U.S. military. But now, there are U.S. troops stationed in Korea. We have the U.S.-Korea alliance, and hasn’t the U.S. declared that they will protect us under their firm nuclear umbrella? Therefore, comparing the situation to the Korean War is a bit excessive.”
Tae Yong-ho also stated, “North Korea, as the general elections approach, is creating a frame of ‘war or peace’ and provoking us to choose one. But recently, this frame is not working well. Didn’t we see the recent Taiwan presidential election? China pressured Taiwan with a ‘war or peace’ frame, but in the end, the Taiwanese people did not fall for it and made a different choice.”
Tae Yong-ho further commented on the ‘possibility of war’ by saying, “I think it is low. Even when North Korea fired a missile the day before, they made it clear. Their missile test does not affect the security or peace of any neighboring countries.”
Robert Carlin, a researcher at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies, and Professor Siegfried Hecker, in an article published on the North Korean specialist site 38 North on the 11th (local time), stated that “the situation on the Korean Peninsula is more dangerous than ever since the early June 1950” and that “they think Kim Jong-un has made a strategic decision to go to war, as his grandfather did in 1950.”
They argued that “we don’t know when and how Kim Jong-un will pull the trigger, but the current risk goes beyond the ‘provocation’ that the U.S., South Korea, and Japan always warn about” and that “the ‘war readiness’ messages appearing in North Korean state media since early last year are not the usual bluffs by North Korea.”
They also saw the major reason for Kim Jong-un’s decision to go to war as his great disappointment at the breakdown of negotiations at the North Korea-U.S. summit in Hanoi in February 2019 and his complete abandonment of the goal of normalizing relations with the U.S., which has been the goal of the North Korean regime for three generations.
They also argued that North Korea may have judged that the opportunity and time have come to pursue a military solution to the Korean Peninsula issue, as a friendly global environment is being created through strengthening cooperation with China and Russia.
Yet in this situation, the two scholars analyzed that South Korea and the U.S. are sticking to the belief that Kim Jong-un will maintain the status quo while making minor provocations because of the ‘ironclad’ deterrence of the U.S.-Korea alliance.
They warned that “the U.S. and South Korea may think they can deter North Korea by frequently sending the message ‘if North Korea attacks, we will destroy the North Korean regime’, but such thinking can be fatal in the current situation.”
They also projected that “we may have reached a situation where we need to seriously consider the worst-case scenario that North Korea may plan to move in a way that completely deviates from our calculations” and that “North Korea may try to attack the weakest part of the U.S.-Japan-Korea military power either psychologically or physically.”
They added, “If Chairman Kim Jong-un decides that there is no other way to improve relations with the U.S., his recent statements and actions show that he is leaning towards a military solution using nuclear weapons.”
By. Sharon Lee
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