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| North Korean Chairman Kim Jong-un. Photo= Yonhap News |
Amid escalating tensions due to North Korea’s recent provocations, securities analysts have assessed that the actual possibility of war appears low after examining geopolitical risks.
Kim Young-hwan, a researcher at NH Investment & Securities, said in a report on the 24th, “Recently, North Korea has been intensifying tensions by declaring South Korea as its primary enemy in its constitution, in addition to traditional military provocations such as artillery fire and ballistic missile launches. However, the situation has not increased the actual possibility of war.”
Kim said, “If North Korea was considering war, they would need to stockpile weapons and use deceptive tactics. But in reality, North Korea is exporting weapons to Russia, which means their weapon stockpile is likely decreasing. North Korea’s provocations towards the South have only heightened the South Korean military’s alertness, making it difficult to see it as preparation for war.”
Kim explains that North Korea’s recent provocations are not preparations for war, but rather a means to overcome the country’s internal and external difficulties.
Kim said, “North Korea has shown confidence by adopting a hardline stance towards the South and establishing alternative channels to evade international sanctions through improved relations with Russia.”
He also added, “North Korea is experiencing an economic downturn due to sanctions and is losing public sentiment. The penetration of South Korean culture into North Korea is also causing public sentiment to shift, so North Korea is intensifying social distancing with South Korea as a strategy to regain internal public sentiment.”
In conclusion, he said, “North Korea is more concerned about the economy than war. There is no need to worry about an increase in war risk and the subsequent increase in uncertainty in the financial market.”
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