Recently, evaluations have emerged suggesting that North Korea’s threats towards the Korean Peninsula have crossed a dangerous threshold leading American officials to predict the possibility of lethal military action within weeks.
According to *The New York Times* (NYT) on the 25th (local time), U.S. officials are concerned that Kim Jong-un Chairman of the State Affairs Commission of North Korea’s recent hardline stance appears to be part of a ‘provocation’ pattern, but the level of aggression is higher than previous statements.
Officials argue that they should prepare countermeasures for such provocations, seeing them as serious matters. Although they do not foresee a full-scale war on the Korean Peninsula, they point out the possibility of an attack in a way that avoids a rapid escalation of tension.
The NYT cited the Yeonpyeong Island shelling incident that occurred in November 2010 as an example. It was an incident where 4 people including 2 marines were killed due to North Korea’s artillery provocation.
North Korea’s aggressive actions have been increasing recently. Most recently on the 24th, they test-fired a new strategic cruise missile ‘Bulhwasal-3-31’, and on the 14th, they launched an ‘ultra-sonic’ medium-range ballistic missile (IRBM).
On the 5th of this month, the North Korean military fired 200 rounds of coastal artillery, mainly at sea near the Northern Limit Line (NLL) in the West Sea. In response, the Marine Corps countered with over 400 rounds of fire from K9 self-propelled guns and tank guns.
At the same time, Chairman Kim, in his policy speech at the Supreme People’s Assembly on the 15th, stated that the expressions ‘self-reliance, peaceful reunification, and national solidarity’ in the constitution should also be deleted, and the concepts of ‘reunification, reconciliation, and kinship’ should be completely removed. He also ordered the demolition of the Three Charters for National Reunification monument, which he referred to as an ‘eyesore’ at the southern gate of the capital, Pyongyang.
In response to these actions, U.S. officials said that even though North Korea’s wide-ranging strategy is to create anxiety, the threat has crossed a dangerous threshold and there is an ‘unprecedented’ level of cooperation between Russia and North Korea, so they should prepare for military action.
Jonathan Finer, Deputy National Security Advisor of the National Security Council (NSC) at the White House, pointed out at a forum of the American think tank ‘Asia Society’ held in Washington that day, “North Korea is showing very negative behavior.”
Daniel Russel, former Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs and Vice President of the Asia Society, argued that recent remarks by Chairman Kim show an intention to attack beyond the 2010 Yeonpyeong Island shelling saying, “We must prepare for the possibility of Kim Jong-un taking shocking physical action.”
By. Hee Won Seo
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