63% of Korean Citizens Believe China Will Interfere with Korean Peninsula Unification

Kim Jong Un, the Supreme leader of North Korea, visited the Nampho Shipyard to inspect the status of warship construction, as reported by the Korean Central News Agency on the 2nd. Yonhap News

Regarding the role of China in the unification of the Korean Peninsula, 63% of our citizens responded that “it would be a hindrance”. When asked how much willingness China has to contribute substantially to North Korea’s denuclearization, a whopping 81.1% responded “none”.

On the 5th, the results of the opinion survey on “North Korean Nuclear Crisis and Perception of Security Situation” commissioned by the Chey Institute for Advanced Studies were announced. According to this poll, only 5.7% of respondents thought that China’s role in the unification of the Korean Peninsula “would be helpful”, and 31.3% responded “it would neither help nor hinder”. As for how much ability China has to make a substantial contribution to North Korea’s denuclearization, 64% said “incapable”, and 36% said “capable”.

When asked about the possibility of Japan developing nuclear weapons, more than half, 65.4%, said “possible”. In relation to this, the late Henry Kissinger, former U.S. Secretary of State, predicted in an interview with the British weekly Economist last May that Japan would become a nuclear-armed country within five years. The support rate for nuclear armament among the Japanese people, who have experienced atomic bombing, is very low at less than 10%.

Regarding North Korea’s denuclearization, an overwhelming majority sees no possibility. The perception that “North Korea’s denuclearization is impossible” was 91%, significantly higher than last year’s survey (77.6%). The perception that South Korea needs to develop nuclear weapons independently was 72.8%. Although slightly lower than last year’s 76.6%, it still maintained a high level.

In a situation where North Korea can attack the U.S. mainland, 60.8% thought that the U.S. would not exercise nuclear deterrence in the event of a Korean Peninsula crisis, while 39.2% thought they would. Compares to last years survey, 51.3% were positive and 48.7% were negative about the possibility of the U.S. exercising nuclear deterrence, where the positive side slightly in the lead, this year, trust in the possibility of the U.S. exercising nuclear deterrence fell by 12% points. Chey Institute for Advanced Studies explained, “It seems that the trust of the Korean people in the U.S. has not so much fallen, but the advanced development of North Korean nuclear weapons, the increasingly provocative posture, and the uncertainty of the U.S. election have played a role.”

Even when asked whether the nuclear threat from North Korea would be resolved through the strengthening of security cooperation between South Korea, the U.S., and Japan through the Camp David Trilateral Summit Joint Declaration, “no” was higher at 63.4% than “yes” at 36.6%. The institute interpreted, “Although the need to strengthen security cooperation among those three countries, South Korea, the U.S., and Japan, is strongly felt, it is evaluated that the current level of trilateral cooperation is not enough to resolve the nuclear threat from North Korea.”

For the upcoming U.S. presidential election in November, 63.7% believed that former U.S. President Donald Trump would not actively seek to resolve the North Korean nuclear issue if elected. Regarding whether former President Trump would give pressure the withdrawal of U.S. troops from South Korea, as he did in 2016, over issues such as the defense cost-sharing burden for U.S. troops in Korea, 78.2% responded “yes”.

The survey was conducted from December 15th last year to the 10th of last month, with a one-on-one interview method targeting 1,043 adult men and women aged 18 and over. The margin of error is ±3.0% points at a 95% confidence level.