Korea’s Spy Satellite Competition Begins: South’s 10X Superiority in Identifying Missile Launchers

With the successful launch of South Korea’s first independent reconnaissance satellite in the early hours of December 2, the era of domestically produced military reconnaissance satellites has begun, freeing the country from dependence on the U.S. for information collection via reconnaissance satellites against North Korea. As a result, South Korea’s ‘Kill Chain’ capability against North Korea’s nuclear and missile threats is expected to be significantly strengthened.

Previously, North Korea claimed to have launched its third military reconnaissance satellite and entered into mission execution, raising the curtain on the ‘reconnaissance satellite competition’ where South and North Korea monitor each other’s major military facilities.
Particularly, our military plans to launch four more reconnaissance satellites, aiming to operationalize all five by 2025. Of course, North Korea also expressed its intention to launch additional satellites following the ‘Manrikyeong 1’, which was put into orbit on the 21st of last month, leading to assessments that the era of space competition between South and North has begun.

Reconnaissance satellites are considered a core force in military surveillance and reconnaissance. They play the role of the military’s ‘eyes’, quickly detecting signs of enemy nuclear, and missile provocations and removing them before they are launched in the event of a war.

Above all, it makes a revolutionary contribution to the proper operation of the Kill Chain, a pre-emptive strike system that neutralizes enemy nuclear and missile attacks before they are launched and expands the military’s operational area to space, intensifying the space competition between South and North.

Operation ‘Left of Launch’ possible

With the successful launch of the first reconnaissance satellite (EO/IR), which will be operational in the first half of next year, the military’s internal evaluation is that the Kill Chain capability to detect North Korean nuclear and missile attacks in the event of a war and eliminate them with pre-emptive strikes will be strengthened if all satellites 1 to 5 are operational by 2025.

A military official said, “We are confident that the Kill Chain capability, an attack system that eliminates North Korea’s nuclear and missiles before they are launched, will be strengthened.”

The advantage of electro-optical (EO) and infrared (IR) satellites is that they can take pictures at night and have the ability to detect and track heat coming from the target. This means that even when the North Korean military operates a mobile launch vehicle (TEL) at night or prepares to launch a ballistic missile from the TEL, it can be detected.

Satellites 2 to 5 are equipped with high-performance imaging radar (SAR), which allows for all-weather, day, and night imaging regardless of weather conditions. Therefore, if all five reconnaissance satellites are operational and closely monitoring the entire North Korean region, the likelihood of shortening the Kill Chain operation time is high.

When the Kill Chain construction plan was established, the military envisioned detecting the targets of North Korean nuclear and missile facilities, identifying coordinates, selecting and deciding to launch weapons to eliminate them within a minimum of 25 minutes.

The biggest advantage of military reconnaissance satellites is that they can monitor the entire area of North Korea from space. This lays the foundation for the military’s operation speed to become more precise and offensive. The ability to collect intelligence from the ground and sea is expected to double, and the operation radius is also expected to expand.

Moreover, thanks to the ability to monitor the movement of North Korean military facilities, deployment status, equipment and troops, and TELs at intervals of two hours a day through five reconnaissance satellites, operational planning will inevitably become more precise, experts explain.

In addition, there are plans to launch dozens of small satellites weighing less than 100 kg. If the revisit period is shortened to 30 minutes, the number of photos and video shoots of the North Korean region will increase, enabling more detailed surveillance and reconnaissance.

A military official said, “Based on this reconnaissance information, we will be able to deploy precision strike weapons tailored to the target.”

In particular, with the operation of reconnaissance satellites, the military authorities are reported to be promoting the establishment of physical and non-physical (cyber and electronic warfare, etc.) means of ‘pre-launch phase’ (Left of Launch) concept development and operational systems. It is the military’s judgment that it is possible to establish a strategic construction that responds by establishing a means and operational system to neutralize North Korea’s nuclear and missile provocations before launch, that is, in the pre-launch phase.

North Korea “will launch more reconnaissance satellites”… South-North space competition

North Korea’s Chairman Kim Jong-un, visiting the Pyongyang Comprehensive Control Center the day after the launch of ‘Manrikyeong 1’, announced that “we need to launch more reconnaissance satellites, deploy them in orbit, operate them in an integrated and practical way, provide abundant real-time valuable information against the enemy in front of the Republic’s power, and further raise the response posture.” This is a foreshadowing of the space competition between South and North Korea.

The military estimates that North Korea has produced several rockets like the ‘Chollima-1’, the launch vehicle for Manrikyeong 1.

Since the defects revealed in the two previous failures were remedied in this third launch, it seems possible to supplement the rockets that have been produced so far. Kim Jong-un’s will to launch additional satellites is interpreted as stemming from such technical confidence.

Our military also plans to operationalize four SAR satellites and one EO/IR-mounted satellite, a total of five, by 2025. The military has achieved 65-70% localization of major components by independently designing the system, body, and optical payload during the manufacturing process of the first satellite. Since it has secured technologies such as high-speed maneuvering satellite attitude control technology and ultra-high-resolution large-diameter optical payload development technology, it seems that the foundation for additional operation of reconnaissance satellites has been established.

In addition to the operationalization of the Electro-Optical Satellite Surveillance System (EOSS), the establishment of a space operations squadron and a space operations execution system, and the acquisition of satellite power are being promoted, and the development of a laser weapon system to shoot down enemy satellites with lasers is also known to be under review.

The Ministry of National Defense emphasized, “In response to the international situation where the security area is expanding to space, we are strengthening our national defense space power,” and “We will enhance our superior space-based information surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) capabilities against North Korea.”

North Korea claims that its military reconnaissance satellite, ‘Manryeong 1,’ has begun its official mission against our military’s reconnaissance satellite. The state-run radio, Korean Central Broadcasting, reported on December 3 that the ‘Reconnaissance Satellite Operation Room’ of the National Aerospace Development Administration in Pyongyang has been on duty since December 2. This marks 11 days since the ‘Manryeong 1’ was launched on November 21.

So far, North Korea has revealed that the satellite would officially start its reconnaissance mission on December 1 after a period of ‘fine-tuning.’

They conveyed that this process is being carried out 1-2 days ahead of schedule, but did not disclose the official start date of the satellite’s mission. The broadcast explained that the operation room will “perform its duties as an independent military intelligence organization” and “the information obtained through mission execution will be reported to the relevant standing executive department of the Central Military Commission of the Workers’ Party of Korea and will be provided to important units considered as national war deterrent and the General Reconnaissance Bureau of the Korean People’s Army as per instructions.”

“Even if North Korea’s shooting claims are true, the quality is likely low”

This suggests that the operation room is under the jurisdiction of the Central Military Commission, North Korea’s highest military leadership body with Kim Jong Un as chairman, and is closely linked with the General Reconnaissance Bureau, which is in charge of nuclear, ICBM (intercontinental ballistic missile) related military units and special warfare and intelligence warfare. However, the media did not disclose the current status of the satellite or any new shooting information on this day.

Kim Jong Un, Chairman of the State Affairs Commission, visited the control center directly on the 22nd, 24th, and 25th after the satellite was launched. Since then, he has been receiving related reports almost daily from the control center. North Korea has claimed that the satellite has photographed the White House and the Pentagon in the U.S., U.S. military bases in Guam and Hawaii, and Jinhae, Busan, Ulsan, Pohang, Daegu, and Gangneung in Korea, but they have not released any satellite photos.

As a result, experts analyze that North Korea’s claims may be exaggerated and even if the shooting is true, the quality is likely to be low.

Our military’s reconnaissance satellite has a resolution of 0.3m, which is ranked fifth in the world. This means that an object of 30cm (approximately 11.8 inches) on the ground can be identified, which is why it is considered to have more than ten times the performance of North Korea’s 3m-class reconnaissance satellite.

A military official said, “It is about 3.4 times more precise than the resolution of the Multipurpose Practical Satellite 3A (Arirang 3A).”

The Arirang 3A, a domestically produced satellite, was launched on a Russian Dnepr launch vehicle in 2015. This satellite is equipped with a 0.55m-class optical lens. It can recognize a person on the ground by recognizing an object of 55cm (approximately 21.7 inches) in each direction as a point.

Thanks to this, it is expected to accurately capture not only the movement of people but also most traffic movements, as it has implemented more than three times the precision of the Arirang 3A. This will allow real-time detection of fixed and mobile targets such as North Korea’s nuclear, missile, and long-range artillery bases, and mobile launch platforms (TEL).

Jang Young-keun, director of the Missile Center at the National Security Strategy Research Institute, said, “If the footage taken can identify objects less than 1m, it is sub-meter level and you can see the center line of the highway,” and “If it is 0.3m-class, you can’t identify people’s expressions or car license plates like in a movie, but you can understand the route if a person is walking and precisely know whether a vehicle running on the road is a car, truck, or bus.”

Malligyong – 1, starts official reconnaissance mission,” North Korea claims

The satellite Manryeong 1, which North Korea launched for the third time last month after consecutive failures in May and August, is generally analyzed by military experts to be 1.3m in length, weigh 300kg (approximately 661.4 pounds), and have a resolution estimated to be between 1 and 5m. Although it is understood that North Korea has put the reconnaissance satellite into orbit, it is difficult to obtain clear information about the desired targets or target areas with a satellite with a resolution of 1m or more, limiting its military use.

Some have also evaluated that the performance itself is limited because it is a small satellite. Van Diepen, a former senior adviser in charge of international security non-proliferation at the U.S. State Department, pointed out in a Voice of America (VOA) broadcast that “North Korea’s Manryeong 1 has ‘inherent limitations’ in securing high-quality satellite photos” and “considering the general technical level and performance of the launch vehicle, the size of the satellite greatly affects the resolution of the satellite photo, and ‘Manryeong 1’ is made as a small satellite, so the resolution is bound to be low.”

On the other hand, our military’s reconnaissance satellite eliminates blind spots by integrating various types of images. The optical (EO) equipment can take pictures when it’s daytime or when there are no clouds, just like human eyes. Infrared (IR) equipment and Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) satellites can take pictures regardless of weather and day and night because they are infrared and radio wave methods. By integrating various types of images, it is possible to identify the exact state of a specific object.

Countries with high military tension deploy a large number of fake fighters, tanks, and missiles made of wood. Normally, they avoid enemy surveillance of real weapons and guide enemy attacks to fake weapons in times of war.

Therefore, while fake weapons made of wood look like real weapons in digital optical camera images, the temperature difference between metal and wood appears in infrared camera images, distinguishing real weapons from fake weapons and making strategic judgments. This applies when our military’s five reconnaissance satellites are operational.

By. Hyun Ho Lee