North Korea’s Missile Moves: Hwasong-18 Launch Sparks International Concern

On the night of the 17th, North Korea launched a short-range ballistic missile (SRBM) into the East Sea from the Pyongyang area, and about 10 hours later on the morning of the 18th, they fired an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), conducting provocations for two consecutive days. This is interpreted as a reaction to the decision made by the United States and South Korea during last week’s Nuclear Consultative Group (NCG) meeting to conduct nuclear operation exercises in the joint military drills scheduled for August next year. Moreover, it is seen as an attempt to instill fear that North Korea can carry out a nuclear attack on the U.S. mainland, potentially weakening the U.S. nuclear umbrella commitment to South Korea and creating divisions in the U.S.-South Korea alliance.

The Joint Chiefs of Staff announced that North Korea is estimated to have launched a long-range ballistic missile at around 8:24 am today, which was fired into the East Sea from the Pyongyang area. The ballistic missile from North Korea was launched at a high angle and is presumed to have hit the East Sea after flying approximately 1,000 km. This marks the fifth North Korean ICBM launch this year. Japan’s Defense Ministry reported that North Korea’s ICBM fell into the sea west of Hokkaido, about 250 km outside Japan’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ), around 9:37 am, with a flight time of about 73 minutes and reaching an altitude exceeding 3,728miles.

It’s been about five months since the test launch of the new solid-fuel-propelled ICBM, the Hwasong-18, on July 12. The long-range ballistic missile fired by North Korea today is also presumed to be the Hwasong-18. The Hwasong-18 is estimated to be 82 feet long, 6.9 feet in diameter, weigh 55-60 tons, have a range of 8078-9321 miles, and carry a warhead weighing 1.25-1.5 tons.

Military experts believe that North Korea has essentially completed the solid-fuel engine with another successful launch of the Hwasong-18. If it acquires re-entry technology into the atmosphere, it is expected to enter the stage of operationalization. However, Kwon Yong-su, a former professor at the National Defense University, analyzed, “The third launch of the Hwasong-18 this time appears to have been an experiment to secure the reliability of the solid-fuel engine propulsion body in terms of military effectiveness, securing flight stability.”

The ICBM launch this time is seen as a way to stabilize the recently unstable regime by showing off its nuclear missile possession both domestically and internationally around the 17th, which was the 12th anniversary of the death of National Defense Commission Chairman Kim Jong-il. Professor Jung Dae-jin of Wonju Hanra University said, “Externally, it appears to be a counter-response to the agreement on the U.S.-South Korea NCG and nuclear operation exercises, and internally, it appears to be a test launch for internal cohesion ahead of the year-end plenary meeting.”

What’s more noteworthy is that next year, with the South Korean general election and the U.S. presidential election ahead, the regime may heighten military tensions to highlight the completion of key defense tasks as the achievements of Chairman of the State Affairs Commission Kim Jong-un and strengthen regime cohesion. That’s why there are observations that the possibility of a nuclear test, which is the most worrisome, is high, in addition to the continued provocations such as ICBMs and additional launches of military reconnaissance satellites.

Professor Yang Moo-jin of the University of North Korean Studies predicted, “Next year, there will be U.S. elections, etc., so it is expected that there will be provocations such as the launch of about two reconnaissance satellites, the launch of a solid-fuel medium-range missile, the launch of an ICBM at a normal angle, and the launch of a SLBM from the nuclear attack submarine Kim Geun-ok to highlight the issue of North Korea.” Professor Kwon also stated, “There will be multiple warheads and nuclear warhead tests next year.”

The South Korean government and military immediately initiated a response. The Presidential Office held an emergency meeting of the National Security Council (NSC) standing committee to discuss response measures. In particular, the tasks of the U.S.-South Korea Nuclear Consultative Group (NCG) are expected to be promptly pursued to strengthen the effectiveness of joint North Korea nuclear deterrence. The Joint Chiefs of Staff stated, “Despite our repeated warnings, North Korea continues its provocative actions. We sternly warn that North Korea bears full responsibility for all subsequent events.”

Additionally, the U.S., South Korea, and Japan plan to activate a real-time missile warning information-sharing system later this month. The three countries also intend to conduct joint anti-submarine warfare training, missile warning exercises, and other exercises systematically from next year. Jeon Hagyu, a spokesperson for the South Korean Ministry of National Defense, stated in a regular briefing, “The real-time sharing of missile warning information between the U.S., South Korea, and Japan is in the final verification stage. The three countries are coordinating closely to put it into normal operation within a few days.”

By. Hyun Ho Lee