Biden’s Israel Dilemma vs. Trump’s Legal Risks: How It’s Shaping the 2024 Showdown

As the possibility of a rematch between Democratic President Joe Biden and former Republican President Donald Trump in the U.S. election in November next year is increasing, key points of interest are emerging. Observers see the missteps in Middle Eastern diplomacy due to the Israeli-Palestinian armed conflict as a variable in President Biden’s re-election path. At the same time, the various legal risks surrounding former President Trump are expected to hamper him throughout the election period. Furthermore, the candidates’ positions on bills that clearly show the differences between the two parties, such as abortion laws, are also emerging as critical issues.

Biden, the ‘Black Hole’ of the Israeli-Hamas Conflict

President Biden is struggling with public opinion due to his policy towards Israel in response to the invasion by the Palestinian armed faction Hamas. Following Hamas’s surprise attack on May 7th, criticism engulfed President Biden for his appeasement policy towards Iran and the failure of U.S. intelligence agencies. The Biden administration has been reorganizing its military and diplomatic policy from the Middle East to Asia since the beginning of its term. Still, the Israeli-Palestinian situation has revealed the blind spots of this policy.

Even the administration is rebelling against President Biden, who declared himself a supporter of Israel. On May 14th, over 500 employees from more than 40 government agencies, including the National Security Council (NSC) and the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), signed a letter protesting President Biden’s pro-Israel policy.

On June 3rd, over 100 employees from the State Department and the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) submitted an opinion paper alleging that President Biden was providing false information to the public and that Israel was committing war crimes. The five-page opinion paper contained strong criticism that President Biden was conspiring in a massacre by supporting Israel and pointed out that the U.S. support for Israel was taking place without a clear red line.

U.S. political media Axios pointed out that Biden, who declared himself a supporter of Israel, has become a ‘sandbag’ under attack from all sides and named his failed foreign policy as a crucial issue determining next year’s election. To prevent the current conflict from spreading across the Middle East, there is a high possibility that U.S. military intervention will continue. This could lead to a vicious cycle of weakening China’s military and diplomatic response.

Foreign Affairs, a diplomatic journal, observed that U.S. military intervention in the Middle East is anticipated to continue even after the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is resolved. The journal also predicted that the Biden administration’s attempts to pivot its military and diplomatic strategy towards the Indo-Pacific region to counter China’s expansion would face significant challenges, potentially rendering Taiwan more susceptible to China’s aggression.

Trump, Legal Risks Throughout the Election Period

The most vulnerable point for former President Trump is legal risk. He is the first defendant in a criminal trial in U.S. history, including both former and current presidents. Now, he is facing a total of 91 charges in four indictments, including attempts to overturn the 2020 election results, silencing adult film actresses, and leaking White House confidential documents. He will have to stand trial throughout the election period, starting with the trial for inciting the Congressional intrusion incident on March 4th next year. Due to the low likelihood of all four cases being resolved before the election, there is speculation that if he cannot effectively refute key evidence presented during the trial and withstand attacks from rival candidates, it could potentially impact the dynamics of the election.

However, it is difficult to predict whether legal risk will lead to a loss of voter support. While the legal risk initially seemed to corner former President Trump, interest has waned as the trial drags on. In a recent two-way virtual battle poll conducted by Emerson College among 1,475 registered voters nationwide, Biden recorded 43% and Trump 47%, with Trump leading outside the margin of error. Until now, President Biden and former President Trump have been in a close race.

Furthermore, a U.S. court ruled that ‘even Trump’s alleged involvement in the Congressional riot rebellion cannot prevent him from running in the election.’ Therefore, despite the various legal risks surrounding former President Trump, preventing him from running is expected to be complicated. Similar lawsuits are ongoing in 28 states, and the recent Colorado ruling is expected to influence the outcomes of other lawsuits. The Guardian in the UK predicted that “there will be no problem with the election path according to this trend” and pointed out that “(despite legal risks) Trump is overwhelmingly leading in the Republican primaries, and also leads Biden in presidential election polls.”

Suppose a guilty verdict is delivered during the election period. However, if he chooses to appeal, his imprisonment will be postponed. There are predictions that if he gets elected while his imprisonment is delayed, he might become the first president to issue a ‘self-pardon.’ The UK’s publication, The Economist, suggested that Trump could run for election even from prison. They pointed to a historical example by mentioning that in 1920, Eugene Debs, the Socialist Party candidate, ran for election from prison and received 3.4% of the vote.

Ideological Debate That Divided the U.S. Also a Variable

Politically polarized debates, such as abortion rights, also stand as critical issues that will determine the outcome of next year’s election. The conservative-leaning Supreme Court divided the U.S. in two when it abruptly abolished the ‘Roe v. Wade’ precedent, which had guaranteed the right to abortion up to six months of pregnancy, for the first time in half a century on June 24th last year.

While former President Trump, who appointed conservative Supreme Court justices, boasted of his ‘great victory’ in the abolition of the Roe v. Wade precedent, he did not clearly reveal his position on abortion rights. He avoided answering directly when asked if he would sign a federal law banning abortion if re-elected. The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) analyzed that Trump’s view on the abortion issue contributed to the unexpected underperformance of the Republican Party, which had expected a great victory in the midterm elections in November last year.

Predictions even suggest that this election could be seen as a judgment against the Republican Party for the abolition of abortion rights, as the Democratic Party scored a complete victory in elections for citizens’ votes and state councils in two competitive states where abortion rights were an issue. On November 7th, the Democratic Party won all the seats in the Virginia state council election, one of the representative competitive states, and on the same day, Ohio voters enshrined the guarantee of abortion rights in the state constitution with a majority of 56% in a referendum. The Virginia state election, a representative competitive state, is a stepping stone between the presidential and midterm congressional elections and plays a role as a weather vane for reading public sentiment.

Public opinion in support of abortion rights has also surged to an all-time high. In a recent poll conducted by the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) and the University of Chicago Public Opinion Research Center among 1,163 voters (from June 19th to 24th), 55% of respondents said ‘they should be able to have an abortion for any reason legally.’ WSJ evaluated that support for allowing abortion has nearly reached its highest level since the 1970s.

One foreign media outlet predicted that “the Democratic Party, which has supported abortion rights, will take the lead by making the abortion issue a key point in the midterm elections and next year’s presidential election.” Even in the midterm elections in November last year, the Democratic Party, which was expected to have a “red wave,” unexpectedly maintained its majority in the Senate, and the consolidation of its support base through the abortion issue was cited as a significant factor.

By. Cho Yoo Jin