How China is Unexpectedly Profiting from the Russia-Ukraine War

The U.S.-Russia Standoff
China Possibly Reaping Benefits
Suspicions of Deliberate Two-Front Tactics

As the year-long war between the U.S., supporting Ukraine, and Russia rages on, all three nations find themselves increasingly entangled in the ongoing conflict. Russia’s military shortcomings are becoming more evident on the global stage. The U.S. is channeling its resources to support Ukraine, and Ukraine is exhausting both its population and territory in its determination to survive the war.

In this scenario, the party most likely to gain from the ongoing conflict appears to be China. China seems to be employing various strategies and tactics to advance its objectives, capitalizing on the situation created by the Ukraine war. Let’s delve deeper into this matter.

The Worst-Case Scenario: A Two-Front War
The U.S. Prioritizes Ukraine

The scenario the U.S. most wants to avoid is having to deal with a two-front war, with China invading Taiwan while Russia invades Ukraine. Given the support for Ukraine from NATO and other European countries this year, the U.S.’s immediate dispatch of a carrier strike group to the South Pacific as soon as the war broke out last year was likely a preventative measure.

However, it’s clear that the U.S. still prioritizes the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. Despite the threat of a Chinese invasion, the U.S. redirected the delivery of the Ground-Launched Small Diameter Bomb (GLSDB), initially intended for Taiwan, to Ukraine. This indicates that the U.S. strategy will likely resolve one front as quickly as possible before focusing on the next conflict with China in the South China Sea.

A Deliberate Two-Front War?
What’s China’s Next Move?

At this point, one might question whether China and Russia, both allies, are deliberately drawing the U.S. into a two-front war through backdoor negotiations. However, it’s challenging to make such a conclusion as China has not been actively supporting Russia. This judgment will be meaningful in one or two years when the Ukraine war is expected to end.

It’s also challenging to assume that China’s ultimate goal is to invade Taiwan by force as the outbreak of war could destroy the advanced manufacturing facilities, a key objective of Taiwan’s annexation. Therefore, all eyes are on China’s next move to absorb Taiwan as peacefully as possible.