If Putin is successful in his re-election in the Russian presidential election scheduled for March 17 next year, there is a possibility that the nuclear tests conducted by North Korea and Russia, known as the “international pariah” alliance, could resume. This prediction comes as Russia withdrew from the ‘Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty’ last October, and with Putin’s re-election, a ’30-year rule’ system could be established, potentially resuming nuclear tests as part of an anti-American performance. If North Korea collaborates by conducting its seventh nuclear test, the international order could once again be plunged into a sharp crisis. As China and Russia mark the 75th anniversary of diplomatic relations, the establishment of an ‘anti-American triangular alliance’ could also become more pronounced.
Hyun Seung-soo, a research fellow at the International Strategy Research Office of the Unification Research Institute, made this prediction at a briefing on the ‘2024 Korean Peninsula Situation Outlook’ hosted by the Unification Research Institute at the President Hotel on the 13th. He speculated, “Putin’s election victory next year is certain. He will strengthen the anti-American front, and in this gap, North Korea’s value will rise.” If Russia attempts a nuclear test for the first time in 30 years, North Korea will conduct a seventh nuclear test in cooperation with this, and Russia will continue its pariah alliance in the form of protecting North Korea at the UN Security Council. He added, “The level of military cooperation that is not transparently understood between the two countries will be strengthened this year, and the security threat will increase.”
Russia previously signed the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) withdrawal on November 2. The ‘Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty’ passed by the UN in 1996 prohibits nuclear tests in any form, scale, or place. 196 countries have signed it, and 162 countries have ratified it. With Russia’s withdrawal from the CTBT, concerns have persisted that it could again undertake nuclear tests for the first time in over 30 years since the Soviet era. The possibility of resuming nuclear tests has been mentioned to gain an advantage in the Ukraine war and find a breakthrough from Western sanctions pressure.
The close strengthening between North Korea and Russia is expected to complicate the position of the Korea-Russia relationship. Researcher Hyun predicted, “Russia will recommend Korean companies to participate in post-war recovery in the Ukrainian territory occupied by Russia.” However, there were also diagnoses that the closeness between North Korea and Russia is limited. Senior researcher Cho Han-beom said, “Russia does not have competitive industries, so the North Korea-Russia alliance will only open up the space of a shower in a drought, and it has no sustainability. Distortion of the North Korean economy and the creation of military tension are inevitable.”
The concern lies in the increasing likelihood that the ties between China and Russia will strengthen as they approach the 75th anniversary of diplomatic relations next year. There has already been a summit meeting between the leaders of China and Russia on October 18th, and subsequent foreign ministerial talks between North Korea and Russia on the 19th. Research Fellow Jae-Young Joo of the Institute for International Strategy noted, “China is likely to actively engage in diplomacy opposing multi-polarization and polarization through solidarity with North Korea.” Director Sung-Yun Jung of the Institute for Unification Policy stated, “In the international landscape next year, amid the interactions of the North Korea-China-Russia alliance against the cooperation of the U.S., Japan, and South Korea, there will be a tendency to suppress the counterpart rather than engage in dialogue.
By. Chae Eun Koo
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