North Korea Denies following the military agreement with South Korea on September 19, tensions in the region have gone up. Experts think North Korea might launch more types of missiles such as an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), a submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM), or a new medium-range ballistic missile (IRBM).
North Korea showcased its mobility by releasing photos of the test launch of the solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) Hwasong-18 on the 19th. In the images revealed by the Korean Central News Agency, the Transporter Erector Launcher (TEL) carrying the Hwasong-18 emerges from what appears to be a newly constructed and tidy tunnel, moving onto the road for transportation.”
The TEL was parked on a road adjacent to a snow-covered rice field, which was identified as being approximately 10 miles southwest of the Kumsusan Palace of the Sun in central Pyongyang. The road leading from the tunnel was neatly paved with asphalt, but the area near the missile launch site appeared uneven with patches of frozen road.
North Korea’s disclosure of the starting and ending points of the mobile launch platform appears to be an attempt to showcase the mobility of the new ICBM, first revealed in April of this year. This was the third launch of the Hwasong-18, with the second launch in July taking place on the banks of the Taedong River. By demonstrating the ability to launch from different locations and concealed positions within tunnels, North Korea is showing its ability to evade preemptive strikes by the US and South Korea.
Compared to the last test launch of the Hwasong-18 five months ago, there doesn’t seem to be a significant difference in terms of maximum altitude and flight distance. Experts also consider North Korea’s Hwasong-18 launch as a ‘test launch’ rather than a ‘launch drill’. However, after the first and second launches in April and July, the missile launch tube cover separated and fell to the ground, but this time it remained attached to the launch pad.
Possibility of Hwasong-18 final development and test launch
▲ North Korea’s provocations ahead of next year’s U.S. presidential election = After observing the Hwasong-18 missile launch exercise, Chairman Kim stated, “We are swiftly prepared for any action if Washington makes a wrong decision, clearly demonstrating our readiness.” The Hwasong-18, with the capability to cover the entire U.S. mainland, suggests the potential for a nuclear attack.
There is a heightened possibility of escalating provocations, especially with the upcoming November 2024 U.S. presidential election. With Donald Trump, the former U.S. president expected to challenge for re-election and seen as friendly towards Kim Jong-un, North Korea might aim to bolster its nuclear capabilities to gain an advantage in future North Korea-U.S. negotiations. The recent demonstration of the Hwasong-18’s launch angle suggests North Korea’s intent to prove re-entry technology into the atmosphere. By showcasing the ability to strike the entire U.S., North Korea could attempt to draw Trump back into nuclear negotiations.
Senior Researcher Park Yong-han from the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses (KIDA) raised concerns during the “KIDA North Korean Military Forum” on the 13th, stating, “There is a possibility that North Korea may provoke to intervene in the South Korean elections in April and the U.S. presidential election in November next year,” and suggested that North Korea might conduct additional nuclear tests considering the potential disadvantage for Donald Trump’s re-election.
Kim Jin-ha, Senior Research Fellow at the Unification Research Institute, presented the “2024 Korean Peninsula Security Outlook” on the same day, foreseeing North Korea’s continued nuclear and missile advancement next year. He expressed concern that North Korea might attempt military provocations, aiming for the election of favorable candidates and weakening the South Korean government after the April 2024 elections.
▲Provocation Card Targeting U.S. Mainland= North Korean Chairman Kim Jong-un issued a blatant nuclear attack threat against the U.S. mainland while observing the launch drill of the solid-fuel-based ICBM Hwasong-18 on the 18th. Especially considering the upcoming U.S. presidential election in November next year, Kim Jong-un has instructed a more aggressive response against the U.S. and others, predicting that North Korea’s show of force will intensify. The analysis suggests that the reason North Korea is escalating military tensions at the end of the year is to highlight the completion of key defense tasks as Chairman Kim Jong-un’s ‘achievement’ and to strengthen regime cohesion.
Therefore, it is expected that North Korea will continue large-scale provocations next year. North Korea could pull out an SLBM or IRBM as its next card. North Korea, which has been working on the ‘core five tasks’ of the five-year plan for defense capability development presented at the 8th Congress of the Workers’ Party of Korea in January 2021, commissioned its first tactical nuclear attack submarine, the ‘Kim Gun-ok Hero Submarine’ (No. 841), in September. Following the successful launch of a reconnaissance satellite, North Korea claimed in November that it had successfully tested a solid-fuel engine for a new IRBM.
Possibility of SLBM·IRBM Launch or 7th Nuclear Test
After North Korea’s ICBM launch, there is a possibility of a seventh nuclear test. North Korea’s first nuclear test occurred on October 9, 2006, just three months after the launch of the Daepodong-2. The second nuclear test, conducted on May 25, 2009, followed the launch of the Kwangmyŏngsŏng-2 satellite on a Taepodong-2 long-range missile a month earlier. The third nuclear test took place on February 12, 2013, two months after the launch of the Kwangmyŏngsŏng-3 satellite on a Unha-3 rocket.
The most recent, the sixth nuclear test, occurred on September 3, 2017, just two months after the launch of the Hwasong-14 intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM).
If North Korea proceeds with a seventh nuclear test, there is a significant possibility of conducting the previously revealed tactical nuclear weapon test of the Pukguksong-31. Observers suggest that this move could demonstrate the capability to equip long-range ballistic missiles with nuclear warheads. In March, North Korea unveiled scenes of leader Kim Jong-un providing on-site guidance on “nuclear weaponization,” showcasing the Pukguksong-31 and missiles equipped with it.
The National Intelligence Service, in a briefing to the parliamentary intelligence committee last month, stated, “Nuclear tests are determined by the North Korean leader’s decision. By 2024, depending on Kim Jong-un’s decision, there is a possibility of conducting a nuclear test at any time.
By Nak Gyu Yang
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