Israel and Hamas Long-Term Conflict Until February: Hamas Declares ‘No Surrender’

On the 25th (local time), Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (center) is seen receiving a military briefing from military officials at an Israeli military base in the northern Gaza Strip, donning a bulletproof vest and helmet. AP-Yonhap News

Despite international pressure for a ceasefire, the war between Israel and the Palestinian armed group Hamas seems likely to continue into the new year. Civilian casualties have exceeded 26,000 but on the 25th (local time) Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reiterated his stance that there will be no ceasefire or end to the war. Hamas also maintained a stance of ‘no surrender’ through the first public message from a Gaza Strip leader since the outbreak of the war. Amid the hardline stance of the warring parties, Israeli airstrikes on the Gaza Strip continue with civilian casualties increasing including 250 deaths in a single day. Pessimistic assessments are following that hopes for a ceasefire within the Gaza Strip and the resumption of additional hostage negotiations are quickly turning to ashes (Financial Times UK).

Israel including Prime Minister Netanyahu is demonstrating its will for a protracted war through government actions. Netanyahu visited Israeli troops stationed in the northern Gaza Strip on the same day and stated emphatically, “Regardless of who argues, there will be no end to the war.” He also emphasized in a parliamentary speech on the same day that “without military pressure, we will not succeed in rescuing the hostages held by Hamas,” and the ruling Likud party statement highlighted that “it will be a long fight.” This will be revealed in the budget for next year. The Israeli government estimated an additional expenditure of over 50 billion shekels (approximately 18 trillion won / $15.1 billion) through the budget submitted to parliament stating that “the intense war will continue at least until February next year.”

The ‘three preconditions for peace in the Gaza Strip’ proposed by Prime Minister Netanyahu in an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) on the same day also do not deviate from the existing position. What he proposed was the destruction of Hamas the Iranian proxy, the disarmament of the Gaza Strip, and the abandonment of ‘radicalism’ especially implying the continued presence of the military by arguing that Israel should maintain security control in the region for a while about the disarmament of the Gaza Strip. This continues to defy the position of the United States and others who support the ‘two-state solution’.

Hamas also maintained its will to fight through the first public message released by Yahya Sinwar a Gaza Strip leader since the outbreak of the war on October 7th. Sinwar stated in a letter sent to the Arab media Al Jazeera “We are fighting a fierce, violent, and unprecedented battle against the Israeli occupation forces. We will not surrender to the conditions of the occupation forces.” The UK’s Daily Telegraph interpreted Sinwar’s claim as showing a challenging attitude saying that there would be no surrender, keeping in mind the ‘three-step end-of-war theory’ proposed by Egypt.

On the 25th (local time), Palestinian civilians are waiting to receive food at a refugee camp in Rafah, southern Gaza Strip. On this day alone, 250 civilians in the Gaza Strip were killed in Israeli airstrikes. UPI-Yonhap News

Egypt had previously proposed an end-of-war theory that includes a ceasefire and the exchange of 40-50 Israeli hostages and 120-150 Palestinian prisoners in the first step, the establishment of a transitional government to govern post-war Gaza Strip and the West Bank with the participation of Palestinian factions in the second step and the declaration of the end of the war by conducting a large-scale exchange of hostages and prisoners in the third step. The WSJ stated, “This is the first comprehensive peace plan to emerge since the outbreak of the war,” but also evaluated that “both Israel and Hamas reacted coldly and fierce resistance is inevitable.”

Hamas also criticized ceasefire and mediation proposals. Israt Rishik, a senior Hamas official staying in Qatar, reiterated his existing position that he would not negotiate “without a complete cessation of attacks.”

As negotiations run parallel, concerns about civilian and hostage casualties are growing as airstrikes continue. The AP reported that the Israeli military bombed a refugee camp in the central Gaza Strip early on the 26th. Even on Christmas Eve, airstrikes continued, and the Gaza Strip Health Department reported that 250 civilians were killed in just 24 hours in the central refugee camp and southern Khan Yunis. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, Director-General of the World Health Organization (WHO), posted a picture of a nine-year-old boy injured in an airstrike on X (old Twitter), stating, “Children are being bombed, killed while walking or sleeping in bed,” and argued, “The international community cannot tolerate this situation. This must be stopped immediately.” AFP reported that in Israel, families of hostages shouted “Right now” during Prime Minister Netanyahu’s parliamentary speech urging immediate negotiations for the release of hostages.

In addition, the Iranian government claimed that Raji Musabi a senior officer of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard who was staying in Syria was killed in an Israeli airstrike in Syria. Musabi was one of the senior officers accompanying Qasem Soleimani, the commander of the elite Quds Force of the Revolutionary Guard who was killed in a U.S. drone attack in Iraq in 2020. Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi issued a statement warning “Israel will pay a price for this crime.”

On the other hand, there are observations that Israel is seeking an exit from the protracted war through a transition to a low-intensity war. The U.S. political specialist media Axios reported that Ron Dermer, Israel’s strategic affairs minister and a close aide to Netanyahu will visit the U.S. on the 26th to discuss plans to reduce the scale of the Gaza Strip war and transition to low-intensity operations with the White House and the U.S. State Department.