Nikkei Analysis: Most Dangerous Scenario in US Election is Trump Losing

The potential legal challenges facing Donald Trump, including four criminal trials
Provoking supporters could lead to an escalation of political violence across the country

With a little over eight months remaining until the U.S. presidential election, Western countries express concern about the possibility of former President Donald Trump’s being re-elected. The prospect of Trump, who views allies as a burden, winning again raises significant apprehensions about potential disruptions in security.

But the most dangerous scenario for the U.S. and the world is that legal risks materialize, forcing Trump to step down or lose the election, according to an analysis by the Nihon Keizai Shimbun (Nikkei) on the 26th.

Unless there’s a major upset, the election will likely be a rematch between Trump and current President Joe Biden. Recent polls generally show Trump’s approval rating outpacing Biden’s. In a survey conducted by ABC and others from the 9th to the 10th, 86% of respondents thought Biden was too old to hold office.

Many speculate that if Trump is re-elected, it could lead to the United States withdrawing from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).

The impact wouldn’t be confined to Europe. Trump insisted on withdrawing U.S. troops stationed in South Korea during his term, but his aides dissuaded him, and he ended up making it his “second-term priority.” It’s also uncertain how far Trump would involve U.S. troops in a hypothetical Taiwan situation.

According to Nikkei, those who fear Trump’s resurgence are secretly hoping that his four criminal trials and other issues will halt his election campaign or discourage him from running.

A New York state court is set to hold its first trial in late March on charges that he improperly handled hush money paid to an affair partner. The verdict is expected to come out before the election, and if he is found guilty, some of the moderates may defect.

Separate from the criminal trials, a case regarding eligibility to run for president is also underway. Even though the Supreme Court will likely allow him to run, if they rule against him, Trump won’t be able to run.

Nikkei emphasized that such a situation is not desirable at all. If Trump appeals that “the election was stolen again through a witch hunt” and provokes his supporters, a series of violent incidents could occur across the U.S., Nikkei predicted.

In the worst-case scenario, the political civil war between Trump’s supporters and opponents could intensify beyond repair, and even if Biden is re-elected, he might only be able to focus on domestic issues.

Nikkei pointed out that the U.S. is already seeing a rise in political conflicts and violent incidents. According to Reuters, there have been 213 violent incidents caused by political opposition since the Capitol occupation incident in January 2021, including 18 incidents that resulted in deaths.

Nikkei stated, “The most desirable election outcome for the U.S. and the world is a clear difference in votes through a fair election.” From the standpoint of allies, “it would be better if Biden, who values international cooperation, wins.” They continued, “Other countries can’t dictate the choice of U.S. voters,” and “the best thing for allies to do is to prepare measures in case of a Trump resurgence scenario.”